NAS100: Daily Read | 2026-11-02

Nasdaq 100 is in a sharp but not yet trend-ending pullback, with the last price at 28,385 after finishing the last session 3.5 percent lower. The index is down near the floor of its one-month range, which means the market is testing whether longer-term conviction can absorb an abrupt reset in positioning. The near-term view is cautious because downside pressure remains active, but the broader structure has not yet surrendered its upward bias. This matters now because stabilization close to support would preserve the pullback interpretation, while another decisive leg lower would turn a correction into a more damaging structural break.

The one-month average is 29,933, and price is below it, so near-term control has shifted toward the bears because rebounds must now recover lost ground before confidence can improve. The structure still reads as a pullback, slipping under the one-month average while the longer trend points up. Momentum is roughly 2.8 percent down over the last two weeks, which means weakness predates the latest session and cannot be dismissed as a single-day shock. For a growth-heavy index, changes in discount-rate and earnings expectations can produce outsized repricing, because distant cash flows carry unusual weight in Nasdaq valuations.

The immediate contest sits around the nearer round number handles at 28,500 and 28,000. The first matters because 28,500 is the closest recovery point that could show the decline is losing force, while 28,000 is a psychological defense just beneath the market. More important is the shelf of support at 28,093, about 1.0 percent below, because it stands between the current pullback and a return toward the bottom of the three-month range of 27,176 to 31,361. Losing 28,093 exposes 27,176, which means the full lower boundary of that range becomes relevant. On the upside, the month swing high at 31,361 is about 10.5 percent above the current price. That level is major resistance because it marks the point where supply previously overwhelmed demand, while a decisive move above 31,361 opens the path toward 31,861 and confirms renewed expansion.

The bull path is straightforward: if 28,093 holds, 28,000 is defended, and price reclaims 28,500, then stabilization can develop into a recovery toward 29,933 because regaining the one-month average would repair near-term structure. If that recovery then clears 31,361 decisively, the path toward 31,861 opens because the prior ceiling would have become evidence of renewed trend strength. The bear path begins if 28,093 gives way with persistence. If that happens, then 27,176 becomes exposed because the market would have lost both the support shelf and the nearby round-number defense, signalling that the pullback is broadening into a deeper range retracement.

The principal risk to the cautious view is a fast recovery through 29,933, which means bears would lose their main structural advantage and the decline could prove largely position-driven. Conversely, the longer upward trend is invalidated as the dominant guide if 28,093 fails and 27,176 cannot hold, because the market would be breaking the lower edge of its three-month range. Net, NAS100 remains a pullback within a broader rise while above 28,093, but conviction should stay restrained until 28,500 and then 29,933 are recovered.

Key levels: support 28,093 (1.0% below), resistance 31,361 (10.5% above), one-month average 29,933, three-month range 27,176 to 31,361.