Tools · Calendars

Economic Calendar

Every scheduled US release that moves rates and stocks: when it lands, what it measures, and what the last figure said. Each release becomes a card the evening it comes out.

Last updated 10 Nov 2026, 01:16 UTC Fed rate 3.75-4.00%, held 28 Oct Next Fed decision Wed 9 Dec (in 30d)

This week

Mon 9 Nov to Fri 13 Nov

Times in New York (ET) and London (UK). Before a release you see the last figure; once it is out you see the new one, and the same rule line as its card below.

No major US releases on Mon 9 Nov, Wed 11 Nov.

Tue 10 Nov 1 release

8:30 am ET · 13:30 UK

CPI, October

BLS Inflation

Last3.7% for Sep

Last 6 first prints

Apr3.8%May4.2%Jun3.5%Jul3.3%Aug3.4%Sep3.7%

About

Prices people pay for everyday goods and services.

The most watched price figure. It moves rate bets and bond yields on the day.

Thu 12 Nov 1 release

8:30 am ET · 13:30 UK

Weekly jobless claims

Labor Department Jobs

Last189k for 31 Oct

Last 6 first prints

26 Sep197k3 Oct197k10 Oct199k17 Oct194k24 Oct194k31 Oct189k

About

New claims for unemployment benefit, last week.

The quickest read on layoffs, out every week.

Fri 13 Nov 1 release

8:30 am ET · 13:30 UK

PPI, October

BLS Inflation

Last+1.3% for Sep

Last 6 first prints

Apr+1.4%May+1.1%Jun-0.3%Jul0.0%Aug+0.4%Sep+1.3%

About

Prices businesses get for their goods and services.

An early sign of cost pressure that can reach shop prices later.

What the data says

Where the economy sits, and how it is changing

The data reads Boom, strong.

Growth is holding up and the latest figures were better. Inflation is running hot and the latest prints were hotter.

Wrong if, and how it changed

Wrong ifRetail sales on Tue 17 Nov comes in clearly weaker than the last print: that moves the read to Stagflation. S&P 500 going back over 7,811.54 (its level a month ago) would undo the month's drop in stocks.

How it changed

Month since 10 Oct

Growth improvingInflation risingMarkets more nervousRate bets eased

Growth figures firmed and prices ran hotter. Stocks -3.4%, oil -5.6%, 2-year yield -24bp.

Week since 2 Nov

Growth improvingInflation steadyMarkets calmerRate bets steady

Growth figures firmed and price figures held steady. Stocks +0.1%, oil -10.1%, 2-year yield -3bp.

3 days since 4 Nov close

Growth improvingInflation steadyMarkets more nervousRate bets steady

Growth figures firmed and price figures held steady. Stocks -1.8%, oil -1.6%, 2-year yield -2bp.

Today 9 Nov session

Growth steadyInflation steadyMarkets calmerRate bets steady

Growth and price figures steady. Stocks +2.4%, oil -4.6%, 2-year yield +5bp.

Read as of 10 Nov 2026, 01:08 UTC. Economic figures are the first print, as published on release day. Markets use the last daily close (Mon 9 Nov). Education, not advice.

For the Fed's side (decisions, statements, rate path), see Fed Watch →

Released

What came out, newest first

Written once, from the first print, never edited after. Actual vs prior only: we do not show forecasts. Tap a card to open it.

Each card leans towardHikingHoldingCuttingset by fixed rules from the figures, not written by hand.

Fri 6 Nov · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingOctober jobs report: payrolls +165k, from +60k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+165k	+60k	stronger
Unemployment rate	4.1%	4.2%	stronger
Hourly pay, y/y	3.1%	3.2%	steady

Last 6 first prints

May+172kJun+57kJul-23kAug+162kSep+29kOct+165k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring picked up and is above its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth held its pace and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 6 Nov 2026.

Thu 5 Nov · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 189k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 31 Oct · 13:30 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	189k	195k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

26 Sep197k3 Oct197k10 Oct199k17 Oct194k24 Oct194k31 Oct189k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 5 Nov 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble.

Tue 3 Nov · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember job openings: 7.52m, from 7.19m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.52m	7.19m	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Apr7.62mMay7.59mJun7.36mJul7.27mAug7.08mSep7.52m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings rose and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 3 Nov 2026.

Fri 30 Oct · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward cuttingCuttingQ3 employment cost index: labour costs +0.8% in the quarter, from +0.9%

BLS · Employment cost index · 12:30 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Employment cost index, q/q	+0.8%	+0.9%	cooler

Last 5 first prints

Q3+0.8%Q4+0.7%Q1+0.9%Q2+0.9%Q3+0.8%

Labour costs rose more slowly than last quarter and are inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Oct 2026.

Thu 29 Oct · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingSeptember PCE prices: core inflation 3.1% over the year, from 3.0%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 12:30 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.1%	3.0%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Apr3.3%May3.4%Jun3.3%Jul3.3%Aug3.0%Sep3.1%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 29 Oct 2026.

Thu 29 Oct · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ3 GDP, first estimate: growth at 3.4% annual rate, from 2.2%

BEA · GDP · 12:30 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q3)	3.4%	2.2%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%Q12.0%Q21.5%Q33.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Growth was stronger than last quarter and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 29 Oct 2026.

Wed 28 Oct · 2:00 pm ETFedHeldHeldFed holds its rate at 3.75-4.00%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 18:00 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.75-4.00%	3.75-4.00%	no change

Last 6 decisions, top of range

Mar3.75%Apr3.75%Jun3.75%Jul3.75%Sep4.00%Oct4.00%

The Fed left its rate at 3.75-4.00%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 28 Oct 2026.

Tue 27 Oct · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember new home sales: 676k a year, from 680k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 14:00 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	676k	680k	steady

Last 6 first prints

Apr622kMay580kJun628kJul607kAug684kSep676k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 27 Oct 2026.

Tue 27 Oct · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember durable goods: orders +1.8% in the month, from +0.1%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 12:30 UK

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+1.8%	+0.1%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.5%	+0.3%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Apr+7.9%May-4.5%Jun+0.3%Jul+1.1%Aug0.0%Sep+1.8%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were stronger than last month and are above their usual pace. Orders excluding transport held their pace and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 27 Oct 2026.

Thu 22 Oct · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 194k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 17 Oct · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	194k	200k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

12 Sep196k19 Sep197k26 Sep197k3 Oct197k10 Oct199k17 Oct194k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 22 Oct 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 20 Oct · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward cuttingCuttingSeptember housing starts: 1,221k a year, from 1,288k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,221k	1,288k	weaker
Building permits, yearly pace	1,400k	1,403k	steady

Last 6 first prints

Apr1,465kMay1,177kJun1,427kJul1,239kAug1,275kSep1,221k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts fell and are below their usual pace. Building permits held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 20 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 16 Oct · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember industrial production: output +0.7% in the month, from +0.1%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.7%	+0.1%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Apr+0.7%May+0.1%Jun+0.1%Jul+0.2%Aug0.0%Sep+0.7%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew faster than last month and is above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 15 Oct · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember retail sales: spending +0.8% in the month, from +1.3%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.8%	+1.3%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Apr+0.5%May+0.9%Jun+0.2%Jul-0.6%Aug+1.2%Sep+0.8%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew more slowly than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 15 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 15 Oct · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingSeptember PPI: producer prices +1.3% in the month, from +0.5%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+1.3%	+0.5%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Apr+1.4%May+1.1%Jun-0.3%Jul0.0%Aug+0.4%Sep+1.3%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 15 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 15 Oct · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingOctober Philly Fed survey: factory activity 20.9, from 37.8

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	20.9	37.8	weaker
Philly Fed prices paid	43.2	48.6	cooler

Last 6 first prints

May-0.4Jun10.3Jul41.4Aug47.4Sep37.8Oct20.9

Factory activity slowed and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories eased and stay high. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 15 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 14 Oct · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingSeptember CPI: prices up 3.7% over the year, from 3.4%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	3.7%	3.4%	hotter
Core CPI, y/y	2.6%	2.4%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Apr3.8%May4.2%Jun3.5%Jul3.3%Aug3.4%Sep3.7%

Consumer prices rose faster than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices firmed and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 14 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 2 Oct · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward cuttingCuttingSeptember jobs report: payrolls +29k, from +133k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+29k	+133k	weaker
Unemployment rate	4.2%	4.1%	weaker
Hourly pay, y/y	3.0%	3.1%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Apr+115kMay+172kJun+57kJul-23kAug+162kSep+29k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring slowed and is below its usual pace. Unemployment edged up and is in its usual range. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 2 Oct 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 30 Sep · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust PCE prices: core inflation 3.0% over the year, from 3.0%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.0%	3.0%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Mar3.2%Apr3.3%May3.4%Jun3.3%Jul3.3%Aug3.0%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

The Fed's preferred price gauge held its pace and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 30 Sep · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ2 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 2.2% annual rate, from 1.5%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q2)	2.2%	1.5%	revised up

Last 5 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%Q12.0%Q21.5%

Growth was stronger than the last estimate and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Sep 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 29 Sep · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust job openings: 7.08m, from 7.33m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.08m	7.33m	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Mar6.87mApr7.62mMay7.59mJun7.36mJul7.27mAug7.08m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings fell and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 29 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 25 Sep · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust durable goods: orders 0.0% in the month, from +0.9%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	0.0%	+0.9%	weaker
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.3%	+0.7%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Mar+0.8%Apr+7.9%May-4.5%Jun+0.3%Jul+1.1%Aug0.0%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were weaker than last month and are near their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were weaker than last month and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 25 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 24 Sep · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust new home sales: 684k a year, from 643k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	684k	643k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Mar682kApr622kMay580kJun628kJul607kAug684k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales rose and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 24 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 18 Sep · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust industrial production: output 0.0% in the month, from +0.2%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	0.0%	+0.2%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Mar-0.5%Apr+0.7%May+0.1%Jun+0.1%Jul+0.2%Aug0.0%

Output from factories, mines and utilities held its pace and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 18 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 17 Sep · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward hikingHikingSeptember Philly Fed survey: factory activity 37.8, from 47.4

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	37.8	47.4	weaker
Philly Fed prices paid	48.6	40.9	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Apr26.7May-0.4Jun10.3Jul41.4Aug47.4Sep37.8

Factory activity slowed and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories rose faster and stay high. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 17 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 17 Sep · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust housing starts: 1,275k a year, from 1,309k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,275k	1,309k	steady
Building permits, yearly pace	1,394k	1,433k	steady

Last 6 first prints

Mar1,502kApr1,465kMay1,177kJun1,427kJul1,239kAug1,275k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts held steady and are below their usual pace. Building permits held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 17 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 17 Sep · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 196k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 12 Sep · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	196k	206k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

8 Aug209k15 Aug206k22 Aug203k29 Aug206k5 Sep206k12 Sep196k

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 17 Sep 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 16 Sep · 2:00 pm ETFedHikedHikedFed raises its rate by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 19:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.75-4.00%	3.50-3.75%	up 25bp

Last 6 decisions, top of range

Jan3.75%Mar3.75%Apr3.75%Jun3.75%Jul3.75%Sep4.00%

The Fed raised its rate by 25bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 16 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Wed 16 Sep · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust retail sales: spending +1.2% in the month, from -0.5%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+1.2%	-0.5%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Mar+1.7%Apr+0.5%May+0.9%Jun+0.2%Jul-0.6%Aug+1.2%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew faster than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 11 Sep · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust CPI: prices up 3.4% over the year, from 3.3%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	3.4%	3.3%	steady
Core CPI, y/y	2.4%	2.5%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Mar3.3%Apr3.8%May4.2%Jun3.5%Jul3.3%Aug3.4%

Consumer prices held their pace and are above their usual range. Core prices held their pace and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 11 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 10 Sep · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingAugust PPI: producer prices +0.4% in the month, from +0.1%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.4%	+0.1%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Mar+0.5%Apr+1.4%May+1.1%Jun-0.3%Jul0.0%Aug+0.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 10 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 4 Sep · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust jobs report: payrolls +162k, from +21k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+162k	+21k	stronger
Unemployment rate	4.1%	4.1%	steady
Hourly pay, y/y	3.1%	3.2%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Mar+178kApr+115kMay+172kJun+57kJul-23kAug+162k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring picked up and is above its usual pace. Unemployment held steady and is in its usual range. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 4 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 1 Sep · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly job openings: 7.27m, from 7.18m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.27m	7.18m	steady

Last 6 first prints

Feb6.88mMar6.87mApr7.62mMay7.59mJun7.36mJul7.27m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings held steady and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 1 Sep 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 26 Aug · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly durable goods: orders +1.1% in the month, from +0.5%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+1.1%	+0.5%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.4%	+1.1%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Feb-1.4%Mar+0.8%Apr+7.9%May-4.5%Jun+0.3%Jul+1.1%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were stronger than last month and are above their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were weaker than last month and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 26 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 26 Aug · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly PCE prices: core inflation 3.3% over the year, from 3.3%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.3%	3.3%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Feb3.0%Mar3.2%Apr3.3%May3.4%Jun3.3%Jul3.3%

The Fed's preferred price gauge held its pace and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 26 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 25 Aug · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly new home sales: 607k a year, from 678k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	607k	678k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Jan587kMar682kApr622kMay580kJun628kJul607k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales fell and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 25 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 20 Aug · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingAugust Philly Fed survey: factory activity 47.4, from 41.4

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	47.4	41.4	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	40.9	53.9	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Mar18.1Apr26.7May-0.4Jun10.3Jul41.4Aug47.4

Factory activity picked up and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories eased and stay high. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 20 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 20 Aug · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 206k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 15 Aug · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	206k	212k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

11 Jul208k18 Jul187k25 Jul197k1 Aug199k8 Aug209k15 Aug206k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 20 Aug 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 18 Aug · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward cuttingCuttingJuly housing starts: 1,239k a year, from 1,415k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,239k	1,415k	weaker
Building permits, yearly pace	1,443k	1,374k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Jan1,487kMar1,502kApr1,465kMay1,177kJun1,427kJul1,239k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts fell and are below their usual pace. Building permits rose and are near their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 18 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 18 Aug · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly industrial production: output +0.2% in the month, from +0.3%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.2%	+0.3%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Feb+0.2%Mar-0.5%Apr+0.7%May+0.1%Jun+0.1%Jul+0.2%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities held its pace and is above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 18 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 14 Aug · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward cuttingCuttingJuly retail sales: spending -0.6% in the month, from +0.2%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	-0.6%	+0.2%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Feb+0.6%Mar+1.7%Apr+0.5%May+0.9%Jun+0.2%Jul-0.6%

Spending grew more slowly than last month and is below its usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 14 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 13 Aug · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly PPI: producer prices 0.0% in the month, from -0.1%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	0.0%	-0.1%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Feb+0.7%Mar+0.5%Apr+1.4%May+1.1%Jun-0.3%Jul0.0%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices held their pace and are below their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 13 Aug · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 209k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 8 Aug · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	209k	200k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

4 Jul215k11 Jul208k18 Jul187k25 Jul197k1 Aug199k8 Aug209k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 Aug 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 12 Aug · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward cuttingCuttingJuly CPI: prices up 3.3% over the year, from 3.5%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	3.3%	3.5%	cooler
Core CPI, y/y	2.5%	2.6%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Feb2.4%Mar3.3%Apr3.8%May4.2%Jun3.5%Jul3.3%

Consumer prices rose more slowly than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices cooled and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 12 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Earlier months

August 20262 releases · 0 hiking1 holding1 cutting

Fri 7 Aug · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward cuttingCuttingJuly jobs report: payrolls -23k, from +20k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	-23k	+20k	weaker
Unemployment rate	4.1%	4.2%	stronger
Hourly pay, y/y	3.2%	3.4%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Feb-92kMar+178kApr+115kMay+172kJun+57kJul-23k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring slowed and is below its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 7 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 4 Aug · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingJune job openings: 7.36m, from 7.54m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.36m	7.54m	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Jan6.95mFeb6.88mMar6.87mApr7.62mMay7.59mJun7.36m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings fell and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 4 Aug 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

July 202616 releases · 0 hiking14 holding2 cutting

Fri 31 Jul · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingQ2 employment cost index: labour costs +0.9% in the quarter, from +0.9%

BLS · Employment cost index · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Employment cost index, q/q	+0.9%	+0.9%	steady

Last 4 first prints

Q3+0.8%Q4+0.7%Q1+0.9%Q2+0.9%

Labour costs held their pace and are inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 31 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 30 Jul · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingJune PCE prices: core inflation 3.3% over the year, from 3.4%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.3%	3.4%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Jan3.1%Feb3.0%Mar3.2%Apr3.3%May3.4%Jun3.3%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose more slowly than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 30 Jul · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ2 GDP, first estimate: growth at 1.5% annual rate, from 2.1%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q2)	1.5%	2.1%	weaker

Last 5 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%Q12.0%Q21.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Growth was slower than last quarter and sits near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 30 Jul · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 197k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 25 Jul · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	197k	188k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

20 Jun215k27 Jun215k4 Jul215k11 Jul208k18 Jul187k25 Jul197k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Jul 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 29 Jul · 2:00 pm ETFedHeldHeldFed holds its rate at 3.50-3.75%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 19:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.50-3.75%	3.50-3.75%	no change

Last 6 decisions, top of range

Dec3.75%Jan3.75%Mar3.75%Apr3.75%Jun3.75%Jul3.75%

The Fed left its rate at 3.50-3.75%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 29 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Mon 27 Jul · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJune durable goods: orders +0.3% in the month, from -4.0%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+0.3%	-4.0%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.6%	+1.8%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Jan0.0%Feb-1.4%Mar+0.8%Apr+7.9%May-4.5%Jun+0.3%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were stronger than last month and are near their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were weaker than last month and are above their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 27 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 24 Jul · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingJune new home sales: 628k a year, from 618k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	628k	618k	steady

Last 6 first prints

Dec745kJan587kMar682kApr622kMay580kJun628k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 24 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 23 Jul · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 187k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 18 Jul · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	187k	209k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

13 Jun226k20 Jun215k27 Jun215k4 Jul215k11 Jul208k18 Jul187k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 23 Jul 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 17 Jul · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingJune housing starts: 1,427k a year, from 1,199k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,427k	1,199k	stronger
Building permits, yearly pace	1,367k	1,410k	steady

Last 6 first prints

Dec1,404kJan1,487kMar1,502kApr1,465kMay1,177kJun1,427k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts rose and are near their usual pace. Building permits held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 17 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 17 Jul · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJune industrial production: output +0.1% in the month, from +0.1%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.1%	+0.1%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Jan+0.7%Feb+0.2%Mar-0.5%Apr+0.7%May+0.1%Jun+0.1%

Output from factories, mines and utilities held its pace and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 17 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 16 Jul · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingJune retail sales: spending +0.2% in the month, from +1.0%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.2%	+1.0%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Jan-0.2%Feb+0.6%Mar+1.7%Apr+0.5%May+0.9%Jun+0.2%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew more slowly than last month and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 16 Jul · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJuly Philly Fed survey: factory activity 41.4, from 10.3

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	41.4	10.3	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	53.9	53.2	steady

Last 6 first prints

Feb16.3Mar18.1Apr26.7May-0.4Jun10.3Jul41.4

Factory activity picked up and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories held steady and stay high. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 16 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 16 Jul · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 208k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 11 Jul · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	208k	216k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

6 Jun229k13 Jun226k20 Jun215k27 Jun215k4 Jul215k11 Jul208k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Jul 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 15 Jul · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward cuttingCuttingJune PPI: producer prices -0.3% in the month, from +0.6%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	-0.3%	+0.6%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Jan+0.5%Feb+0.7%Mar+0.5%Apr+1.4%May+1.1%Jun-0.3%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices rose more slowly than last month and are below their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 15 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 14 Jul · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward cuttingCuttingJune CPI: prices up 3.5% over the year, from 4.2%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	3.5%	4.2%	cooler
Core CPI, y/y	2.6%	2.8%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Jan2.4%Feb2.4%Mar3.3%Apr3.8%May4.2%Jun3.5%

Consumer prices rose more slowly than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices cooled and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 14 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 2 Jul · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingJune jobs report: payrolls +57k, from +129k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+57k	+129k	weaker
Unemployment rate	4.2%	4.3%	stronger
Hourly pay, y/y	3.5%	3.4%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Jan+130kFeb-92kMar+178kApr+115kMay+172kJun+57k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring slowed and is near its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth picked up and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 2 Jul 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

June 202616 releases · 3 hiking10 holding3 cutting

Tue 30 Jun · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingMay job openings: 7.59m, from 7.58m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.59m	7.58m	steady

Last 6 first prints

Dec6.54mJan6.95mFeb6.88mMar6.87mApr7.62mMay7.59m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings held steady and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 25 Jun · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingMay durable goods: orders -4.5% in the month, from +8.5%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	-4.5%	+8.5%	weaker
Excluding transport, m/m	+1.3%	+1.4%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Dec-1.4%Jan0.0%Feb-1.4%Mar+0.8%Apr+7.9%May-4.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were weaker than last month and are below their usual pace. Orders excluding transport held their pace and are above their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 25 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 25 Jun · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingMay PCE prices: core inflation 3.4% over the year, from 3.3%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.4%	3.3%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Dec3.0%Jan3.1%Feb3.0%Mar3.2%Apr3.3%May3.4%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 25 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 25 Jun · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ1 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 2.1% annual rate, from 1.6%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q1)	2.1%	1.6%	revised up

Last 4 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%Q12.0%

Growth was stronger than the last estimate and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 25 Jun 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 25 Jun · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 215k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 20 Jun · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	215k	227k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

16 May209k23 May215k30 May225k6 Jun229k13 Jun226k20 Jun215k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 25 Jun 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 24 Jun · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward cuttingCuttingMay new home sales: 580k a year, from 626k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	580k	626k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Oct737kDec745kJan587kMar682kApr622kMay580k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales fell and are below their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 24 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 18 Jun · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward hikingHikingJune Philly Fed survey: factory activity 10.3, from -0.4

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	10.3	-0.4	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	53.2	47.9	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Jan12.6Feb16.3Mar18.1Apr26.7May-0.4Jun10.3

Factory activity picked up and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories rose faster and stay high. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 18 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 17 Jun · 2:00 pm ETFedHeldHeldFed holds its rate at 3.50-3.75%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 19:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.50-3.75%	3.50-3.75%	no change

Last 6 decisions, top of range

Oct4.00%Dec3.75%Jan3.75%Mar3.75%Apr3.75%Jun3.75%

The Fed left its rate at 3.50-3.75%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 17 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Wed 17 Jun · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingMay retail sales: spending +0.9% in the month, from +0.4%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.9%	+0.4%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Dec0.0%Jan-0.2%Feb+0.6%Mar+1.7%Apr+0.5%May+0.9%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew faster than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 17 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 16 Jun · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward cuttingCuttingMay housing starts: 1,177k a year, from 1,392k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,177k	1,392k	weaker
Building permits, yearly pace	1,413k	1,423k	steady

Last 6 first prints

Oct1,246kDec1,404kJan1,487kMar1,502kApr1,465kMay1,177k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts fell and are below their usual pace. Building permits held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 16 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Mon 15 Jun · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingMay industrial production: output +0.1% in the month, from +0.9%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.1%	+0.9%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Dec+0.4%Jan+0.7%Feb+0.2%Mar-0.5%Apr+0.7%May+0.1%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew more slowly than last month and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 15 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 11 Jun · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingMay PPI: producer prices +1.1% in the month, from +1.1%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+1.1%	+1.1%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Dec+0.5%Jan+0.5%Feb+0.7%Mar+0.5%Apr+1.4%May+1.1%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices held their pace and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 11 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 10 Jun · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingMay CPI: prices up 4.2% over the year, from 3.8%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	4.2%	3.8%	hotter
Core CPI, y/y	2.8%	2.7%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Dec2.7%Jan2.4%Feb2.4%Mar3.3%Apr3.8%May4.2%

Consumer prices rose faster than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices firmed and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 10 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 5 Jun · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingMay jobs report: payrolls +172k, from +179k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+172k	+179k	steady
Unemployment rate	4.3%	4.3%	steady
Hourly pay, y/y	3.4%	3.6%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Dec+50kJan+130kFeb-92kMar+178kApr+115kMay+172k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring held its pace and is above its usual pace. Unemployment held steady and is in its usual range. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 5 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 4 Jun · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 225k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 30 May · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	225k	212k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

25 Apr189k2 May200k9 May211k16 May209k23 May215k30 May225k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 4 Jun 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 2 Jun · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingApril job openings: 7.62m, from 6.89m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.62m	6.89m	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Nov7.15mDec6.54mJan6.95mFeb6.88mMar6.87mApr7.62m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings rose and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 2 Jun 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

May 202616 releases · 3 hiking13 holding0 cutting

Thu 28 May · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingApril new home sales: 622k a year, from 663k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	622k	663k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Aug800kOct737kDec745kJan587kMar682kApr622k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales fell and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 28 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 28 May · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingApril durable goods: orders +7.9% in the month, from +1.3%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+7.9%	+1.3%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+1.1%	+1.1%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Nov+5.3%Dec-1.4%Jan0.0%Feb-1.4%Mar+0.8%Apr+7.9%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were stronger than last month and are above their usual pace. Orders excluding transport held their pace and are above their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 28 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 28 May · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingApril PCE prices: core inflation 3.3% over the year, from 3.2%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.3%	3.2%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Nov2.8%Dec3.0%Jan3.1%Feb3.0%Mar3.2%Apr3.3%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 28 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 28 May · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ1 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 1.6% annual rate, from 2.0%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q1)	1.6%	2.0%	revised down

Last 4 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%Q12.0%

Growth was weaker than the last estimate and sits near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 28 May 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 28 May · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 215k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 23 May · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	215k	210k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

18 Apr214k25 Apr189k2 May200k9 May211k16 May209k23 May215k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 28 May 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 21 May · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingMay Philly Fed survey: factory activity -0.4, from 26.7

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	-0.4	26.7	weaker
Philly Fed prices paid	47.9	59.3	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Dec-10.2Jan12.6Feb16.3Mar18.1Apr26.7May-0.4

Factory activity slowed and is inside its usual range. Prices paid by factories eased and stay high. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 21 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 21 May · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingApril housing starts: 1,465k a year, from 1,507k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,465k	1,507k	steady
Building permits, yearly pace	1,442k	1,363k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Aug1,307kOct1,246kDec1,404kJan1,487kMar1,502kApr1,465k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts held steady and are near their usual pace. Building permits rose and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 21 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 15 May · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingApril industrial production: output +0.7% in the month, from -0.3%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.7%	-0.3%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Nov+0.2%Dec+0.4%Jan+0.7%Feb+0.2%Mar-0.5%Apr+0.7%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew faster than last month and is above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 15 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 14 May · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingApril retail sales: spending +0.5% in the month, from +1.6%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.5%	+1.6%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Nov+0.6%Dec0.0%Jan-0.2%Feb+0.6%Mar+1.7%Apr+0.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew more slowly than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 14 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 14 May · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 211k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 9 May · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	211k	199k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

4 Apr219k11 Apr207k18 Apr214k25 Apr189k2 May200k9 May211k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 14 May 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 13 May · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingApril PPI: producer prices +1.4% in the month, from +0.7%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+1.4%	+0.7%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Nov+0.2%Dec+0.5%Jan+0.5%Feb+0.7%Mar+0.5%Apr+1.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 12 May · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingApril CPI: prices up 3.8% over the year, from 3.3%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	3.8%	3.3%	hotter
Core CPI, y/y	2.7%	2.6%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Nov2.7%Dec2.7%Jan2.4%Feb2.4%Mar3.3%Apr3.8%

Consumer prices rose faster than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices firmed and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 12 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 8 May · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingApril jobs report: payrolls +115k, from +185k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+115k	+185k	weaker
Unemployment rate	4.3%	4.3%	steady
Hourly pay, y/y	3.6%	3.4%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Nov+64kDec+50kJan+130kFeb-92kMar+178kApr+115k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring slowed and is above its usual pace. Unemployment held steady and is in its usual range. Pay growth picked up and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 8 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 7 May · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 200k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 2 May · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	200k	190k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

28 Mar202k4 Apr219k11 Apr207k18 Apr214k25 Apr189k2 May200k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 7 May 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 5 May · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch new home sales: 682k a year, from 635k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	682k	635k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Jul652kAug800kOct737kDec745kJan587kMar682k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales rose and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 5 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 5 May · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch job openings: 6.87m, from 6.92m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	6.87m	6.92m	steady

Last 6 first prints

Oct7.67mNov7.15mDec6.54mJan6.95mFeb6.88mMar6.87m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings held steady and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 5 May 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

April 202621 releases · 3 hiking16 holding2 cutting

Thu 30 Apr · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingMarch PCE prices: core inflation 3.2% over the year, from 3.0%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.2%	3.0%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Sep2.8%Nov2.8%Dec3.0%Jan3.1%Feb3.0%Mar3.2%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 30 Apr · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ1 GDP, first estimate: growth at 2.0% annual rate, from 0.5%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q1)	2.0%	0.5%	stronger

Last 4 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%Q12.0%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Growth was stronger than last quarter and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 30 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 189k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 25 Apr · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	189k	215k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

21 Mar210k28 Mar202k4 Apr219k11 Apr207k18 Apr214k25 Apr189k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Apr 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 30 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingQ1 employment cost index: labour costs +0.9% in the quarter, from +0.7%

BLS · Employment cost index · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Employment cost index, q/q	+0.9%	+0.7%	hotter

Last 3 first prints

Q3+0.8%Q4+0.7%Q1+0.9%

Labour costs rose faster than last quarter and are inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 29 Apr · 2:00 pm ETFedHeldHeldFed holds its rate at 3.50-3.75%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 19:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.50-3.75%	3.50-3.75%	no change

Last 6 decisions, top of range

Sep4.25%Oct4.00%Dec3.75%Jan3.75%Mar3.75%Apr3.75%

The Fed left its rate at 3.50-3.75%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 29 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Wed 29 Apr · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch durable goods: orders +0.8% in the month, from -1.2%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+0.8%	-1.2%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.9%	+1.2%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Oct-2.2%Nov+5.3%Dec-1.4%Jan0.0%Feb-1.4%Mar+0.8%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 29 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 29 Apr · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch housing starts: 1,502k a year, from 1,356k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,502k	1,356k	stronger
Building permits, yearly pace	1,372k	1,538k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Jul1,428kAug1,307kOct1,246kDec1,404kJan1,487kMar1,502k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts rose and are above their usual pace. Building permits fell and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 29 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 23 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 214k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 18 Apr · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	214k	208k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

14 Mar205k21 Mar210k28 Mar202k4 Apr219k11 Apr207k18 Apr214k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 23 Apr 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 21 Apr · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch retail sales: spending +1.7% in the month, from +0.7%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+1.7%	+0.7%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Oct0.0%Nov+0.6%Dec0.0%Jan-0.2%Feb+0.6%Mar+1.7%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew faster than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 21 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 16 Apr · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward hikingHikingApril Philly Fed survey: factory activity 26.7, from 18.1

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	26.7	18.1	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	59.3	44.7	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Nov-1.7Dec-10.2Jan12.6Feb16.3Mar18.1Apr26.7

Factory activity picked up and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories rose faster and stay high. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 16 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 16 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 207k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 11 Apr · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	207k	218k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

7 Mar213k14 Mar205k21 Mar210k28 Mar202k4 Apr219k11 Apr207k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Apr 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 16 Apr · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingMarch industrial production: output -0.5% in the month, from +0.7%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	-0.5%	+0.7%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Sep+0.1%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.4%Jan+0.7%Feb+0.2%Mar-0.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew more slowly than last month and is below its usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 14 Apr · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch PPI: producer prices +0.5% in the month, from +0.5%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.5%	+0.5%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Sep+0.3%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.5%Jan+0.5%Feb+0.7%Mar+0.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices held their pace and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 14 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 10 Apr · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingMarch CPI: prices up 3.3% over the year, from 2.4%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	3.3%	2.4%	hotter
Core CPI, y/y	2.6%	2.5%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Sep3.0%Nov2.7%Dec2.7%Jan2.4%Feb2.4%Mar3.3%

Consumer prices rose faster than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices firmed and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 10 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 9 Apr · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch PCE prices: core inflation 3.0% over the year, from 3.1%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.0%	3.1%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Aug2.9%Sep2.8%Nov2.8%Dec3.0%Jan3.1%Feb3.0%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose more slowly than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 9 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 9 Apr · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ1 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 0.5% annual rate, from 0.7%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q4)	0.5%	0.7%	steady

Last 3 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%

Growth was close to the last estimate and sits below its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 9 Apr 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 9 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 219k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 4 Apr · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	219k	203k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

28 Feb213k7 Mar213k14 Mar205k21 Mar210k28 Mar202k4 Apr219k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 9 Apr 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 7 Apr · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingFebruary durable goods: orders -1.4% in the month, from -0.5%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	-1.4%	-0.5%	weaker
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.8%	+0.3%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Sep+0.5%Oct-2.2%Nov+5.3%Dec-1.4%Jan0.0%Feb-1.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were weaker than last month and are below their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were stronger than last month and are above their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 7 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 3 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch jobs report: payrolls +178k, from -133k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+178k	-133k	stronger
Unemployment rate	4.3%	4.4%	stronger
Hourly pay, y/y	3.5%	3.8%	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Sep+119kNov+64kDec+50kJan+130kFeb-92kMar+178k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring picked up and is above its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 3 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 2 Apr · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 202k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 28 Mar · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	202k	211k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

21 Feb212k28 Feb213k7 Mar213k14 Mar205k21 Mar210k28 Mar202k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 2 Apr 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 1 Apr · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingMarch retail sales: spending +0.6% in the month, from -0.1%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.6%	-0.1%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Sep+0.2%Oct0.0%Nov+0.6%Dec0.0%Jan-0.2%Feb+0.6%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew faster than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 1 Apr 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

March 202616 releases · 2 hiking12 holding2 cutting

Tue 31 Mar · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary job openings: 6.88m, from 7.24m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	6.88m	7.24m	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Aug7.23mOct7.67mNov7.15mDec6.54mJan6.95mFeb6.88m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings fell and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 31 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 26 Mar · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 210k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 21 Mar · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	210k	205k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

14 Feb206k21 Feb212k28 Feb213k7 Mar213k14 Mar205k21 Mar210k

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 26 Mar 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 19 Mar · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward cuttingCuttingJanuary new home sales: 587k a year, from 712k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 14:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	587k	712k	weaker

Last 5 first prints

Jul652kAug800kOct737kDec745kJan587k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales fell and are below their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 19 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 19 Mar · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward hikingHikingMarch Philly Fed survey: factory activity 18.1, from 16.3

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	18.1	16.3	steady
Philly Fed prices paid	44.7	38.9	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Oct-12.8Nov-1.7Dec-10.2Jan12.6Feb16.3Mar18.1

Factory activity held steady and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories rose faster and stay high. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 19 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 19 Mar · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 205k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 14 Mar · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	205k	213k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

7 Feb227k14 Feb206k21 Feb212k28 Feb213k7 Mar213k14 Mar205k

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 19 Mar 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 18 Mar · 2:00 pm ETFedHeldHeldFed holds its rate at 3.50-3.75%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 18:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.50-3.75%	3.50-3.75%	no change

Last 5 decisions, top of range

Sep4.25%Oct4.00%Dec3.75%Jan3.75%Mar3.75%

The Fed left its rate at 3.50-3.75%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 18 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Wed 18 Mar · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingFebruary PPI: producer prices +0.7% in the month, from +0.5%

BLS · Producer prices · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.7%	+0.5%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Aug-0.1%Sep+0.3%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.5%Jan+0.5%Feb+0.7%

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 18 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Mon 16 Mar · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary industrial production: output +0.2% in the month, from +0.7%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 13:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.2%	+0.7%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Aug+0.1%Sep+0.1%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.4%Jan+0.7%Feb+0.2%

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew more slowly than last month and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 13 Mar · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary durable goods: orders 0.0% in the month, from -0.9%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	0.0%	-0.9%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.4%	+1.3%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Aug+2.9%Sep+0.5%Oct-2.2%Nov+5.3%Dec-1.4%Jan0.0%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were stronger than last month and are near their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were weaker than last month and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 13 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 13 Mar · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary PCE prices: core inflation 3.1% over the year, from 3.0%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.1%	3.0%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Jul2.9%Aug2.9%Sep2.8%Nov2.8%Dec3.0%Jan3.1%

The Fed's preferred price gauge held its pace and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 13 Mar · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingQ4 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 0.7% annual rate, from 1.4%

BEA · GDP · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q4)	0.7%	1.4%	revised down

Last 3 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%

Growth was weaker than the last estimate and sits below its usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 Mar 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 13 Mar · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary job openings: 6.95m, from 6.55m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 14:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	6.95m	6.55m	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Jul7.18mAug7.23mOct7.67mNov7.15mDec6.54mJan6.95m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings rose and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 12 Mar · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary housing starts: 1,487k a year, from 1,387k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,487k	1,387k	stronger
Building permits, yearly pace	1,376k	1,455k	weaker

Last 5 first prints

Jul1,428kAug1,307kOct1,246kDec1,404kJan1,487k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts rose and are near their usual pace. Building permits fell and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 12 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 11 Mar · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary CPI: prices up 2.4% over the year, from 2.4%

BLS · Consumer prices · 12:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	2.4%	2.4%	steady
Core CPI, y/y	2.5%	2.5%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Aug2.9%Sep3.0%Nov2.7%Dec2.7%Jan2.4%Feb2.4%

Consumer prices held their pace and are inside their usual range. Core prices held their pace and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 11 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 6 Mar · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary retail sales: spending -0.2% in the month, from 0.0%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	-0.2%	0.0%	steady

Last 6 first prints

Aug+0.6%Sep+0.2%Oct0.0%Nov+0.6%Dec0.0%Jan-0.2%

Spending held its pace and is below its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 6 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 6 Mar · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary jobs report: payrolls -92k, from +126k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	-92k	+126k	weaker
Unemployment rate	4.4%	4.3%	weaker
Hourly pay, y/y	3.8%	3.7%	hotter

Last 6 first prints

Aug+22kSep+119kNov+64kDec+50kJan+130kFeb-92k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring slowed and is below its usual pace. Unemployment edged up and is in its usual range. Pay growth picked up and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 6 Mar 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

February 202616 releases · 1 hiking12 holding3 cutting

Fri 27 Feb · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary PPI: producer prices +0.5% in the month, from +0.4%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.5%	+0.4%	steady

Last 5 first prints

Aug-0.1%Sep+0.3%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.5%Jan+0.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices held their pace and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 27 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 20 Feb · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember new home sales: 745k a year, from 758k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	745k	758k	steady

Last 4 first prints

Jul652kAug800kOct737kDec745k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 20 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 20 Feb · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingJanuary PCE prices: core inflation 3.0% over the year, from 2.8%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	3.0%	2.8%	hotter

Last 5 first prints

Jul2.9%Aug2.9%Sep2.8%Nov2.8%Dec3.0%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 20 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 20 Feb · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ4 GDP, first estimate: growth at 1.4% annual rate, from 4.4%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q4)	1.4%	4.4%	weaker

Last 3 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%Q41.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Growth was slower than last quarter and sits near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 20 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 19 Feb · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingFebruary Philly Fed survey: factory activity 16.3, from 12.6

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	16.3	12.6	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	38.9	46.9	cooler

Last 6 first prints

Sep23.2Oct-12.8Nov-1.7Dec-10.2Jan12.6Feb16.3

Factory activity picked up and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories eased and stay high. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 19 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 19 Feb · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 206k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 14 Feb · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	206k	229k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

10 Jan198k17 Jan200k24 Jan209k31 Jan231k7 Feb227k14 Feb206k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 19 Feb 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 18 Feb · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingDecember durable goods: orders -1.4% in the month, from +5.4%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	-1.4%	+5.4%	weaker
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.9%	+0.4%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Jul-2.8%Aug+2.9%Sep+0.5%Oct-2.2%Nov+5.3%Dec-1.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 18 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 18 Feb · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember housing starts: 1,404k a year, from 1,322k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,404k	1,322k	stronger
Building permits, yearly pace	1,448k	1,388k	stronger

Last 4 first prints

Jul1,428kAug1,307kOct1,246kDec1,404k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts rose and are near their usual pace. Building permits rose and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 18 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 18 Feb · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary industrial production: output +0.7% in the month, from +0.2%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.7%	+0.2%	stronger

Last 6 first prints

Jul-0.1%Aug+0.1%Sep+0.1%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.4%Jan+0.7%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew faster than last month and is above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 18 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 13 Feb · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward cuttingCuttingJanuary CPI: prices up 2.4% over the year, from 2.7%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	2.4%	2.7%	cooler
Core CPI, y/y	2.5%	2.6%	cooler

Last 5 first prints

Aug2.9%Sep3.0%Nov2.7%Dec2.7%Jan2.4%

Consumer prices rose more slowly than the month before and are inside their usual range. Core prices cooled and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 13 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 12 Feb · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 227k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 7 Feb · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	227k	232k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

3 Jan208k10 Jan198k17 Jan200k24 Jan209k31 Jan231k7 Feb227k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 12 Feb 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 11 Feb · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary jobs report: payrolls +130k, from +48k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+130k	+48k	stronger
Unemployment rate	4.3%	4.4%	stronger
Hourly pay, y/y	3.7%	3.7%	steady

Last 5 first prints

Aug+22kSep+119kNov+64kDec+50kJan+130k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring picked up and is above its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth held its pace and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 11 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 10 Feb · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward cuttingCuttingJanuary retail sales: spending 0.0% in the month, from +0.6%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	0.0%	+0.6%	weaker

Last 6 first prints

Jul+0.5%Aug+0.6%Sep+0.2%Oct0.0%Nov+0.6%Dec0.0%

Spending grew more slowly than last month and is below its usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 10 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 10 Feb · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingQ4 employment cost index: labour costs +0.7% in the quarter, from +0.8%

BLS · Employment cost index · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Employment cost index, q/q	+0.7%	+0.8%	steady

Last 2 first prints

Q3+0.8%Q4+0.7%

Labour costs held their pace and are inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 10 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 5 Feb · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember job openings: 6.54m, from 6.93m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	6.54m	6.93m	weaker

Last 5 first prints

Jul7.18mAug7.23mOct7.67mNov7.15mDec6.54m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings fell and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 5 Feb 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 5 Feb · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 231k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 31 Jan · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	231k	209k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

27 Dec199k3 Jan208k10 Jan198k17 Jan200k24 Jan209k31 Jan231k

Jobless claims rose and are in their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 5 Feb 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

January 202616 releases · 1 hiking13 holding2 cutting

Fri 30 Jan · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingDecember PPI: producer prices +0.5% in the month, from +0.2%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.5%	+0.2%	hotter

Last 4 first prints

Aug-0.1%Sep+0.3%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.5%

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 30 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 28 Jan · 2:00 pm ETFedHeldHeldFed holds its rate at 3.50-3.75%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 19:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.50-3.75%	3.50-3.75%	no change

Last 4 decisions, top of range

Sep4.25%Oct4.00%Dec3.75%Jan3.75%

The Fed left its rate at 3.50-3.75%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 28 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Mon 26 Jan · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingNovember durable goods: orders +5.3% in the month, from -2.1%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+5.3%	-2.1%	stronger
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.5%	+0.1%	stronger

Last 5 first prints

Jul-2.8%Aug+2.9%Sep+0.5%Oct-2.2%Nov+5.3%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were stronger than last month and are above their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were stronger than last month and are above their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 26 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 22 Jan · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember PCE prices: core inflation 2.8% over the year, from 2.7%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	2.8%	2.7%	hotter

Last 4 first prints

Jul2.9%Aug2.9%Sep2.8%Nov2.8%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 22 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 22 Jan · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ4 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 4.4% annual rate, from 4.3%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q3)	4.4%	4.3%	steady

Last 2 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%

Growth was close to the last estimate and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 22 Jan 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 16 Jan · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember industrial production: output +0.4% in the month, from +0.4%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.4%	+0.4%	steady

Last 5 first prints

Jul-0.1%Aug+0.1%Sep+0.1%Nov+0.2%Dec+0.4%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities held its pace and is above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 15 Jan · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingJanuary Philly Fed survey: factory activity 12.6, from -8.8

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	12.6	-8.8	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	46.9	49.3	steady

Last 6 first prints

Aug-0.3Sep23.2Oct-12.8Nov-1.7Dec-10.2Jan12.6

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Factory activity picked up and is above its usual range. Prices paid by factories held steady and stay high. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 15 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 15 Jan · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 198k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 10 Jan · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	198k	207k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

6 Dec236k13 Dec224k20 Dec214k27 Dec199k3 Jan208k10 Jan198k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 15 Jan 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 14 Jan · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember retail sales: spending +0.6% in the month, from -0.1%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.6%	-0.1%	stronger

Last 5 first prints

Jul+0.5%Aug+0.6%Sep+0.2%Oct0.0%Nov+0.6%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending grew faster than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 14 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 14 Jan · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember PPI: producer prices +0.2% in the month, from +0.1%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.2%	+0.1%	hotter

Last 3 first prints

Aug-0.1%Sep+0.3%Nov+0.2%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 14 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 13 Jan · 10:00 am ETHousingLeans toward holdingHoldingOctober new home sales: 737k a year, from 738k

Census Bureau · New residential sales · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
New home sales, yearly pace	737k	738k	steady

Last 3 first prints

Jul652kAug800kOct737k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

New home sales held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 13 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 13 Jan · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward cuttingCuttingDecember CPI: prices up 2.7% over the year, from 2.7%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	2.7%	2.7%	cooler
Core CPI, y/y	2.6%	2.6%	steady

Last 4 first prints

Aug2.9%Sep3.0%Nov2.7%Dec2.7%

Consumer prices rose more slowly than the month before and are inside their usual range. Core prices held their pace and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 13 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 9 Jan · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingDecember jobs report: payrolls +50k, from +56k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+50k	+56k	steady
Unemployment rate	4.4%	4.5%	stronger
Hourly pay, y/y	3.8%	3.6%	hotter

Last 4 first prints

Aug+22kSep+119kNov+64kDec+50k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring held its pace and is below its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth picked up and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 9 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 9 Jan · 8:30 am ETHousingLeans toward cuttingCuttingOctober housing starts: 1,246k a year, from 1,306k

Census Bureau · New residential construction · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Housing starts, yearly pace	1,246k	1,306k	weaker
Building permits, yearly pace	1,412k	1,415k	steady

Last 3 first prints

Jul1,428kAug1,307kOct1,246k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Housing starts fell and are below their usual pace. Building permits held steady and are near their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 9 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 8 Jan · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 208k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 3 Jan · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	208k	200k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

29 Nov191k6 Dec236k13 Dec224k20 Dec214k27 Dec199k3 Jan208k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 8 Jan 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 7 Jan · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingNovember job openings: 7.15m, from 7.45m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.15m	7.45m	weaker

Last 4 first prints

Jul7.18mAug7.23mOct7.67mNov7.15m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings fell and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 7 Jan 2026. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

December 202517 releases · 0 hiking11 holding6 cutting

Wed 31 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 199k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 27 Dec · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	199k	215k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

22 Nov216k29 Nov191k6 Dec236k13 Dec224k20 Dec214k27 Dec199k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 31 Dec 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 24 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 214k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 20 Dec · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	214k	224k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

15 Nov220k22 Nov216k29 Nov191k6 Dec236k13 Dec224k20 Dec214k

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 24 Dec 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 23 Dec · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingOctober durable goods: orders -2.2% in the month, from +0.7%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	-2.2%	+0.7%	weaker
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.2%	+0.7%	weaker

Last 4 first prints

Jul-2.8%Aug+2.9%Sep+0.5%Oct-2.2%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were weaker than last month and are below their usual pace. Orders excluding transport were weaker than last month and are near their usual pace. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 23 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 23 Dec · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingQ3 GDP, first estimate: growth at 4.3% annual rate, from 3.8%

BEA · GDP · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Real GDP, annual rate (Q3)	4.3%	3.8%	stronger

Last 2 first prints

Q23.3%Q34.3%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Growth was stronger than last quarter and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 23 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 23 Dec · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingNovember industrial production: output +0.2% in the month, from -0.1%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.2%	-0.1%	stronger

Last 4 first prints

Jul-0.1%Aug+0.1%Sep+0.1%Nov+0.2%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew faster than last month and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 23 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 18 Dec · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward cuttingCuttingDecember Philly Fed survey: factory activity -10.2, from -1.7

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	-10.2	-1.7	weaker
Philly Fed prices paid	43.6	56.1	cooler

Last 5 first prints

Aug-0.3Sep23.2Oct-12.8Nov-1.7Dec-10.2

Factory activity slowed and is below its usual range. Prices paid by factories eased and stay high. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 18 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 18 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 224k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 13 Dec · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	224k	237k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

20 Sep218k15 Nov220k22 Nov216k29 Nov191k6 Dec236k13 Dec224k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 18 Dec 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 18 Dec · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward cuttingCuttingNovember CPI: prices up 2.7% over the year, from 3.0%

BLS · Consumer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
CPI, y/y	2.7%	3.0%	cooler
Core CPI, y/y	2.6%	3.0%	cooler

Last 3 first prints

Aug2.9%Sep3.0%Nov2.7%

Consumer prices rose more slowly than the month before and are inside their usual range. Core prices cooled and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 18 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 16 Dec · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingNovember retail sales: spending 0.0% in the month, from +0.1%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	0.0%	+0.1%	steady

Last 4 first prints

Jul+0.5%Aug+0.6%Sep+0.2%Oct0.0%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Spending held its pace and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 16 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 16 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward cuttingCuttingNovember jobs report: payrolls +64k, from -105k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+64k	-105k	stronger
Unemployment rate	4.6%	4.4%	weaker
Hourly pay, y/y	3.5%	3.7%	cooler

Last 3 first prints

Aug+22kSep+119kNov+64k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring picked up and is near its usual pace. Unemployment edged up and is high. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 16 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 11 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims rise to 236k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 6 Dec · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	236k	192k	weaker

Last 6 first prints

13 Sep231k20 Sep218k15 Nov220k22 Nov216k29 Nov191k6 Dec236k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims rose and are in their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 11 Dec 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 10 Dec · 2:00 pm ETFedCutCutFed cuts its rate by 25bp to 3.50-3.75%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 19:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.50-3.75%	3.75-4.00%	down 25bp

Last 3 decisions, top of range

Sep4.25%Oct4.00%Dec3.75%

The Fed cut its rate by 25bp, to 3.50-3.75%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 10 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Wed 10 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward cuttingCuttingQ3 employment cost index: labour costs +0.8% in the quarter, from +0.9%

BLS · Employment cost index · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Employment cost index, q/q	+0.8%	+0.9%	cooler

Labour costs rose more slowly than last quarter and are inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 10 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 9 Dec · 10:00 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingOctober job openings: 7.67m, from 7.66m

BLS · Job openings and labor turnover survey · 15:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Job openings (JOLTS)	7.67m	7.66m	steady

Last 3 first prints

Jul7.18mAug7.23mOct7.67m

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Job openings held steady and are above their usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 9 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Fri 5 Dec · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward holdingHoldingNovember PCE prices: core inflation 2.8% over the year, from 2.9%

BEA · Personal income and outlays · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Core PCE, y/y	2.8%	2.9%	cooler

Last 3 first prints

Jul2.9%Aug2.9%Sep2.8%

The Fed's preferred price gauge rose more slowly than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 5 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 4 Dec · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 191k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 29 Nov · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	191k	218k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

6 Sep263k13 Sep231k20 Sep218k15 Nov220k22 Nov216k29 Nov191k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 4 Dec 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 3 Dec · 9:15 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember industrial production: output +0.1% in the month, from -0.3%

Federal Reserve Board · Industrial production (G.17) · 14:15 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Industrial production, m/m	+0.1%	-0.3%	stronger

Last 3 first prints

Jul-0.1%Aug+0.1%Sep+0.1%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Output from factories, mines and utilities grew faster than last month and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 3 Dec 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

November 20257 releases · 2 hiking5 holding0 cutting

Wed 26 Nov · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward holdingHoldingSeptember durable goods: orders +0.5% in the month, from +3.0%

Census Bureau · Advance durable goods report · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Durable goods orders, m/m	+0.5%	+3.0%	weaker
Excluding transport, m/m	+0.6%	+0.5%	steady

Last 3 first prints

Jul-2.8%Aug+2.9%Sep+0.5%

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Durable goods orders were weaker than last month and are near their usual pace. Orders excluding transport held their pace and are above their usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 26 Nov 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Wed 26 Nov · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 216k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 22 Nov · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	216k	222k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

30 Aug237k6 Sep263k13 Sep231k20 Sep218k15 Nov220k22 Nov216k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 26 Nov 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 25 Nov · 8:30 am ETSpendingLeans toward holdingHoldingOctober retail sales: spending +0.2% in the month, from +0.6%

Census Bureau · Advance retail sales · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Retail sales, m/m	+0.2%	+0.6%	weaker

Last 3 first prints

Jul+0.5%Aug+0.6%Sep+0.2%

Spending grew more slowly than last month and is near its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 25 Nov 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Tue 25 Nov · 8:30 am ETInflationLeans toward hikingHikingOctober PPI: producer prices +0.3% in the month, from -0.1%

BLS · Producer prices · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
PPI final demand, m/m	+0.3%	-0.1%	hotter

Last 2 first prints

Aug-0.1%Sep+0.3%

Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 25 Nov 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 20 Nov · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingOctober jobs report: payrolls +119k, from -4k

BLS · Employment situation · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Payrolls, change	+119k	-4k	stronger
Unemployment rate	4.4%	4.3%	weaker
Hourly pay, y/y	3.8%	3.8%	steady

Last 2 first prints

Aug+22kSep+119k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Hiring picked up and is above its usual pace. Unemployment edged up and is in its usual range. Pay growth held its pace and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 20 Nov 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 20 Nov · 8:30 am ETGrowthLeans toward hikingHikingNovember Philly Fed survey: factory activity -1.7, from -12.8

Philadelphia Fed · Manufacturing business outlook survey · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Philly Fed factory activity	-1.7	-12.8	stronger
Philly Fed prices paid	56.1	49.2	hotter

Last 4 first prints

Aug-0.3Sep23.2Oct-12.8Nov-1.7

Factory activity picked up and is inside its usual range. Prices paid by factories rose faster and stay high. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.

Source: Philadelphia Fed via FRED/ALFRED. Figures as first published on 20 Nov 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

Thu 20 Nov · 8:30 am ETJobsLeans toward holdingHoldingWeekly jobless claims fall to 220k

Labor Department · Unemployment claims, week to 15 Nov · 13:30 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Initial jobless claims	220k	228k	stronger

Last 6 first prints

23 Aug229k30 Aug237k6 Sep263k13 Sep231k20 Sep218k15 Nov220k

Prior is the figure as revised in this release; the trend shows each figure as first published.

Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.

Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED. Figure as first published on 20 Nov 2025. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the ALFRED archive of first prints.

October 20251 releases · 0 hiking0 holding1 cutting

Wed 29 Oct · 2:00 pm ETFedCutCutFed cuts its rate by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%

Federal Reserve · FOMC rate decision · 18:00 UK From the archive

Figure	Actual	Prior	Change
Fed funds target range	3.75-4.00%	4.00-4.25%	down 25bp

Last 2 decisions, top of range

Sep4.25%Oct4.00%

The Fed cut its rate by 25bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The vote, the statement and what it means for the path of rates are on Fed Watch.

Statement and vote on Fed Watch →

Source: Federal Reserve, target range via FRED (DFEDTARL, DFEDTARU), as set on 29 Oct 2025. Added to this page on 29 Oct 2026 from the FRED archive.

Cards in earlier months were added on Tue 10 Nov or later from the ALFRED archive of first prints. Each one shows the date its figure was first published.

Coming up

The next four weeks

Dates from the official release calendars.

Week of 16 Nov

Mon 16 Nov8:30 am ET · 13:30 UKEmpire State surveyNew York Fed. How New York factories say business is going.Growth

Tue 17 Nov8:30 am ET · 13:30 UKRetail sales, OctoberCensus Bureau. What shoppers spent in stores and online.Last: +0.8% for SepSpending

Tue 17 Nov9:15 am ET · 14:15 UKIndustrial production, OctoberFederal Reserve Board. Output of factories, mines and utilities.Last: +0.7% for SepGrowth

Wed 18 Nov8:30 am ET · 13:30 UKHousing starts, OctoberCensus Bureau. New homes started, and permits to build.Last: 1,221k for SepHousing

Thu 19 Nov8:30 am ET · 13:30 UKPhilly Fed survey, NovemberPhiladelphia Fed. How factories in the Philadelphia region say business is going.Last: 20.9 for OctGrowth

Thu 19 Nov8:30 am ET · 13:30 UKWeekly jobless claimsLabor Department. New claims for unemployment benefit, last week.Last: 189k for 31 OctJobs

Free weekly email

Get the week's data in one email, Sundays

Every US release from the week in plain words, what each one means for rates, and the week ahead with times in New York and UTC. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.

The Economic Calendar is education, not advice. Figures come from the agencies that publish them, read through FRED and ALFRED as they stood on release day. Prior is the month (or quarter) before, as shown in the same release. We do not show forecasts or "expected" figures. Not listed: the ISM business surveys, Conference Board confidence and University of Michigan sentiment, whose figures are not free to republish.

The lean on each card comes from fixed rules: a hotter price figure above its usual range leans toward hiking; a weaker jobs, growth or housing figure below its usual pace leans toward cutting; everything else leans toward holding. The same rules write the Fed Watch data cards. Last updated 10 Nov 2026, 01:16 UTC.

Mon 9 Nov to Fri 13 Nov

Where the economy sits, and how it is changing

What came out, newest first

Earlier months

The next four weeks

Get the week's data in one email, Sundays

Before you go