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Vol. II · No. 314Tuesday, 10 November 2026
TTitan Protect
Titan Protect · Fed Watch
Fed Policy Tracker
Every Fed decision, speech and economic release that matters for rates, with what it means for the Fed in plain words.
What the data says
Where the economy sits, and how it is changing
Built each evening from the latest official releases, each counted from the day it came out. The same read appears in Macro Sentinel.
The data reads Boom, strong.
Growth is holding up and the latest figures were better. Inflation is running hot and the latest prints were hotter.
Wrong ifRetail sales on Tue 17 Nov comes in clearly weaker than the last print: that moves the read to Stagflation. The S&P 500 going back over 7,811.54 (its level a month ago) would undo the month's drop in stocks.
How it changed
Month since 10 Oct
Growth improvingInflation risingMarkets more nervousRate bets eased
Growth figures firmed and prices ran hotter. Stocks -3.4%, oil -5.6%, 2-year yield -24bp.
Week since 2 Nov
Growth improvingInflation steadyMarkets calmerRate bets steady
Growth figures firmed and price figures held steady. Stocks +0.1%, oil -10.1%, 2-year yield -3bp.
3 days since 4 Nov close
Growth improvingInflation steadyMarkets more nervousRate bets steady
Growth figures firmed and price figures held steady. Stocks -1.8%, oil -1.6%, 2-year yield -2bp.
Today 9 Nov session
Growth steadyInflation steadyMarkets calmerRate bets steady
Growth and price figures steady. Stocks +2.4%, oil -4.6%, 2-year yield +5bp.
Last updated 10 Nov 2026, 01:08 UTC. Economic figures are the first print, as published on release day. Markets use the last daily close (9 Nov); oil is the front-month WTI futures contract. Education, not advice.
Tone count
Fed tone so far
Every Fed event on this page, counted by its tone. Hawkish leans to tighter policy, dovish to easier policy, structural is a change to how the Fed works, neutral has no lean. Data release cards are not counted here; each carries its own lean.
13
Hawkish
Leans to tighter policy
3
Dovish
Leans to easier policy
4
Neutral
No lean either way
9
Structural
A change to how the Fed works
Running count
Fed tone over time
Running count of hawkish, dovish, structural and neutral Fed events, oldest to newest.
Hawkish (cumulative)
Dovish (cumulative)
Structural (cumulative)
Neutral (cumulative)
Full timeline
Decisions, speeches and data releases
Newest first. Tap any event to open it. Data cards are written once, from the first print, and never edited after. A revised figure gets its own new card.
Leans toward hikingHiking
Leans toward holdingHolding
Leans toward cuttingCutting
Set by fixed rules from the figures, not written by hand.
Fri 6 Nov 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
October jobs report: payrolls +165k, from +60k
Leans toward holdingHolding
BLS • Employment situation
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payrolls, change | +165k | +60k | |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% | |
| Hourly pay, y/y | 3.1% | 3.2% |
Leans toward holding
Hiring picked up and is above its usual pace. Unemployment fell and is in its usual range. Pay growth held its pace and is inside its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED, figures as published 6 Nov 2026.
Thu 5 Nov 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
Weekly jobless claims fall to 189k
Leans toward holdingHolding
Labor Department • Unemployment claims, week to 31 Oct
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims | 189k | 195k |
Leans toward holding
Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 5 Nov 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble.
Thu 29 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
Q3 GDP, first estimate: growth at 3.4% annual rate, from 2.2%
Leans toward holdingHolding
BEA • GDP
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, annual rate (Q3) | 3.4% | 2.2% |
Leans toward holding
Growth was stronger than last quarter and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 29 Oct 2026.
Thu 29 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
September PCE prices: core inflation 3.1% over the year, from 3.0%
Leans toward hikingHiking
BEA • Personal income and outlays
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE, y/y | 3.1% | 3.0% |
Leans toward hiking
The Fed's preferred price gauge rose faster than the month before and is above its usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.
Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 29 Oct 2026.
Wed 28 Oct 2026
14:00
Hawkish
FOMC Holds at 3.75-4.00%, 10-2 With Two Dissents for a Hike
FOMC • Rate decision
Rate before
3.75-4.00%
Rate after
3.75-4.00%
Decision
Hold (0 bp)
Six weeks after the September hike, the FOMC voted 10-2 to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, preferring another 25bp hike. The statement says activity is expanding at a strong pace and inflation remains elevated, and that more information will guide the next step. DESK READ: hawkish hold. The pause is not a turn: two votes wanted to keep hiking, so the December meeting (with new projections) stays live for a hike. At the 18:30 UTC press conference Chair Warsh gave no December signal and said the economy is not running too hot in most colleagues' judgment; the 2-year yield fell to about 4.70%.
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. ... Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Thu 22 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
Weekly jobless claims fall to 194k
Leans toward holdingHolding
Labor Department • Unemployment claims, week to 17 Oct
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims | 194k | 200k |
Leans toward holding
Jobless claims fell and stay low, so layoffs are rare. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: Labor Department via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 22 Oct 2026. Weekly claims get a card only when the change is outside the normal weekly wobble.
Thu 15 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
September retail sales: spending +0.8% in the month, from +1.3%
Leans toward holdingHolding
Census Bureau • Advance retail sales
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail sales, m/m | +0.8% | +1.3% |
Leans toward holding
Spending grew more slowly than last month and is still above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: Census Bureau via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 15 Oct 2026.
Thu 15 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
September PPI: producer prices +1.3% in the month, from +0.5%
Leans toward hikingHiking
BLS • Producer prices
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPI final demand, m/m | +1.3% | +0.5% |
Leans toward hiking
Producer prices rose faster than last month and are above their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.
Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 15 Oct 2026.
Wed 14 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
September CPI: prices up 3.7% over the year, from 3.4%
Leans toward hikingHiking
BLS • Consumer prices
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, y/y | 3.7% | 3.4% | |
| Core CPI, y/y | 2.6% | 2.4% |
Leans toward hiking
Consumer prices rose faster than the month before and are above their usual range. Core prices firmed and stay inside their usual range. On its own, this argues for tighter policy.
Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED, figures as published 14 Oct 2026.
Fri 2 Oct 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
September jobs report: payrolls +29k, from +133k
Leans toward cuttingCutting
BLS • Employment situation
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payrolls, change | +29k | +133k | |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.1% | |
| Hourly pay, y/y | 3.0% | 3.1% |
Leans toward cutting
Hiring slowed and is below its usual pace. Unemployment edged up and is in its usual range. Pay growth eased and is inside its usual range. On its own, this argues for easier policy.
Source: BLS via FRED/ALFRED, figures as published 2 Oct 2026.
Wed 30 Sep 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
Q2 GDP, revised estimate: growth at 2.2% annual rate, from 1.5%
Leans toward holdingHolding
BEA • GDP
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP, annual rate (Q2) | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Leans toward holding
Growth was stronger than the last estimate and sits above its usual pace. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 30 Sep 2026. Prior = the earlier estimate for the same quarter.
Wed 30 Sep 2026
8:30 am ET
Data
August PCE prices: core inflation 3.0% over the year, from 3.0%
Leans toward holdingHolding
BEA • Personal income and outlays
| Figure | Actual | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE, y/y | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Leans toward holding
The Fed's preferred price gauge held its pace and is above its usual range. On its own, this gives no clear case to move rates.
Source: BEA via FRED/ALFRED, figure as published 30 Sep 2026.
Wed 16 Sep 2026
14:00
Hawkish
FOMC Raises Rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00% (First Hike Since 2023)
FOMC • Rate decision
Rate before
3.50-3.75%
Rate after
3.75-4.00%
Decision
+25 bp (hike)
FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by 1/4 point to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, to speed inflation's return to 2%. Dot plot: 16 of 18 see at least one more hike; year-end projections 4.1-4.4%. DESK READ: hawkish, rates-up / risk-off. Supports defensives + energy leadership, pressures long-duration growth/tech and rate-sensitive names. Favour quality, keep risk tight into the 28 Oct meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
Mon 17 Aug 2026
Hawkish
No Cut Priced, Markets Weigh Hike Risk Into September Test
Markets • Outlook
Three weeks after the July hold, rate-cut hopes have faded and some forecasters price the possibility of a HIKE before year-end as resurgent energy prices keep inflation sticky. The Fed remains on pause under Warsh; the September FOMC is framed as the first real test of whether recent inflation improvement is durable.
Wed 29 Jul 2026
Hawkish
FOMC Holds at 3.50-3.75% for 5th Straight Meeting: 9-3 With Three Hawkish Dissents
FOMC • Rate decision
Rate before
3.50-3.75%
Rate after
3.50-3.75%
Decision
hold
The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, the fifth consecutive hold under Chair Warsh. Dissenters Hammack, Kashkari and Logan each preferred a 25bp HIKE. The statement kept inflation 'elevated relative to the 2 percent goal,' citing energy-led supply shocks tied to the Middle East conflict, with activity 'expanding at a solid pace.'
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal.
Thu 2 Jul 2026
12:30
Dovish
NFP June 2026 SHOCKS at 57K: Massive Miss vs 114K Forecast
BLS • Data release
Nonfarm Payrolls 57K vs 114K forecast (172K prior). Biggest miss in months. Unemployment paradoxically dropped to 4.2% from 4.3%. Labour force participation declining. Combined with ADP 98K miss, confirms labour market deterioration. Rate cut expectations surge.
Thu 2 Jul 2026
12:30
Dovish
NFP June: 57K SHOCK MISS vs 114K forecast. May revised down 43K.
BLS • Data release
Biggest miss in 4 months. May revised from 172K to 129K. Unemployment paradoxically dropped to 4.2%. Leisure/hospitality -61K (World Cup). Rate hike probability dropped from 67% to 50%.
Thu 2 Jul 2026
04:00
Neutral
Iran refuses IAEA inspector access to bombed nuclear sites
Iran • Geopolitical
Iran chief negotiator denies IAEA inspectors will access Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf confirms on state TV. Contradicts emerging deal framework. Next talks delayed until after funeral Jul 4-9. Diplomatic window closes for a week.
Wed 1 Jul 2026
14:00
Hawkish
ISM Manufacturing PMI June 2026: Beats at 54.0
ISM • Data release
ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 vs 53.0 consensus (prev 52.7). Fourth consecutive month of expansion. Beats expectations by 1.0 point. S&P Global PMI also strong at 55.7. Employment sub-index declined sharply despite headline strength.
Manufacturing PMI at 54 percent
Wed 1 Jul 2026
14:00
Hawkish
ISM Manufacturing PMI June: 54.0 beats 53.0 consensus
ISM • Data release
Fourth consecutive month of expansion. Beats expectations. But employment sub-index declined sharply. Automation thesis: more output, fewer workers.
Wed 1 Jul 2026
12:15
Dovish
ADP Employment June: 98K below expectations
ADP • Data release
Private sector employment growth slowed. Combined with May revision and June NFP miss, confirms labour market deterioration trend.
Wed 1 Jul 2026
09:30
Hawkish
Warsh at ECB Forum (Sintra): "Prices Are Too High," Declines July Signal
Warsh • Speech
At the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Warsh declined to signal what the FOMC would do at its meeting later in July but stressed inflation remains too elevated. He noted open-mindedness on AI and productivity, and referenced staffing for his five policy task forces.
We’re all in the price stability business ... we’ve all looked around, and we’ve seen that prices are too high.
Wed 1 Jul 2026
Neutral
Trump announces Micron $250M commitment to Trump Accounts
Trump • Policy
Micron commits $250M to federal children investment initiative launching Jul 4. Largest corporate commitment. CEO Mehrotra praised.
Thu 25 Jun 2026
12:30
Hawkish
Core PCE May 2026: In-line print, market non-reaction
BEA • Data release
Core PCE consensus 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3% Apr). Headline 4.1% (up from 3.8%). Market unchanged. 5-day selloff had priced it in. F&G 25.9 Extreme Fear.
Thu 25 Jun 2026
Neutral
VP Vance says Iran talks have very good foundation
Vance • Diplomatic
Vance states Strait of Hormuz remains open. Iran negotiations in Switzerland established good foundation for final accord. Crude breaks below 70.
very good foundation
Tue 23 Jun 2026
Neutral
Senate votes 50-48 to limit Iran military action
Senate • Geopolitical
Senate War Powers vote. 4 Republicans crossed party lines. Trump called it meaningless. Weakens military leverage on Iran.
I will get it done, one way or the other
Mon 22 Jun 2026
Hawkish
Bank of America flags 25% rate hike probability
BofA • Market signal
BofA note shifts rate hike probability from 4% to 25% in two weeks. Core PCE stuck at 2.8% for 3 consecutive readings.
Thu 18 Jun 2026
09:30
Hawkish
Post-Decision Market Reaction: Day 2 Assessment
FOMC • Speech
Day 2 after first Warsh FOMC. DXY holds above 100.40. Financial conditions index tightens further. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both remove 2026 rate cut forecasts. Consensus shifts to 'higher for longer' as structural, not cyclical. Treasury market reprices Q3 2026 expectations.
Wed 17 Jun 2026
14:30
Hawkish
Post-FOMC Press Conference: Key Quotes
Warsh • Speech
Warsh delivers 22-minute press conference: shortest in modern Fed history. Refuses to provide forward guidance. Declines to answer questions about rate path. States task force recommendations will be adopted in full by September. Confirms 2% is 'the number, not a range, not an average'.
Wed 17 Jun 2026
14:00
Hawkish
FOMC June 2026: First Warsh Decision: 12-0 Hawkish Hold
FOMC • Rate decision
First FOMC meeting under Warsh chair. Unanimous 12-0 vote to hold rates at 5.25-5.50%. Statement removes 'appropriate to cut' language. Adds explicit condition: 'sustained return to 2% required before accommodation is considered'. Warsh press conference is short, direct, no guidance on rate path. Confirms dot plot is being reviewed and may not be published at September meeting.
Fri 12 Jun 2026
13:00
Structural
Task Force 5 Report: Fed Governance & Independence
Task Force 5 • Task force
Task Force 5 (Governance) recommends reforms to Fed board appointment process, publishes internal audit of Fed research independence, and recommends an independent performance review board for monetary policy decisions. Most controversial report: Senate immediately requests testimony.
Tue 9 Jun 2026
13:00
Structural
Task Force 4 Report: Financial Stability & Systemic Risk
Task Force 4 • Task force
Task Force 4 (Financial Stability) recommends separating monetary policy from financial stability tools. Argues Fed should not use rate policy to address financial stability: that is macroprudential territory. Recommends enhanced stress testing, higher capital buffers, and cleaner mandate separation.
Tue 2 Jun 2026
14:00
Structural
Task Force 3 Report: Forward Guidance & Communication Reform
Task Force 3 • Task force
Task Force 3 (Communication) recommends abolishing the dot plot. Recommends ending SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) in current form. Proposes replacing quarterly press conferences with semi-annual testimony only. Argues current communication framework creates financial conditions volatility.
Fri 22 May 2026
16:15
Structural
Warsh Takes Oath as 17th Fed Chair; FOMC Unanimously Selects Him
Warsh • Appointment
Kevin Warsh took the oath of office as Chairman and a member of the Board of Governors, and the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously selected him as its chairman.
Tue 19 May 2026
13:30
Hawkish
Hoover Institution Speech: 'The Fed's Credibility Deficit'
Warsh • Speech
Warsh delivers major policy speech at Stanford Hoover Institution. Argues Fed's credibility was damaged by 'transitory' inflation narrative 2021-2022. Vows to rebuild through consistent action not communication management. First public preview of his 'actions over words' doctrine.
Wed 13 May 2026
16:00
Structural
Senate Confirms Warsh as Fed Chair, 54-45: Narrowest in History
Senate • Vote
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve in a 54-45 vote, the narrowest confirmation of a Fed chair in U.S. history. Fetterman was the only Democrat to vote yes.
Mon 11 May 2026
18:00
Structural
Senate Advances Warsh Nomination, 49-44
Senate • Vote
The Senate voted 49-44 to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination, largely along party lines. Democrats John Fetterman and Chris Coons crossed over in favour.
Tue 5 May 2026
14:00
Structural
Task Force 2 Interim Report: Balance Sheet Normalisation
Task Force 2 • Task force
Task Force 2 (Balance Sheet) recommends accelerating QT pace from $60bn/month to $90bn/month by Q4 2026. Targets balance sheet reduction to $5.5 trillion by end 2027. Recommends ending MBS purchases entirely and moving to purely Treasuries portfolio.
Tue 14 Apr 2026
13:00
Structural
Task Force 1 Interim Report: Inflation Framework Review
Task Force 1 • Task force
Task Force 1 (Inflation & Price Stability) releases interim findings. Recommends moving from 'average inflation targeting' (AIT) back to strict 2% point target. Suggests dropping the 'overshoot' tolerance adopted in 2020. Maintains 2% as non-negotiable anchor.
Thu 15 Jan 2026
14:00
Structural
Kevin Warsh Nominated as Federal Reserve Chair
White House • Appointment
President nominates Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh, a former Fed Governor (2006-2011) and Hoover Institution fellow, is known for hawkish inflation views and institutional reform advocacy.
Verbatim record
Key quotes
Exact words from official statements, testimony, press conferences and speeches, as logged on the day. Newest first.
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. ... Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal.
Manufacturing PMI at 54 percent
We’re all in the price stability business ... we’ve all looked around, and we’ve seen that prices are too high.
very good foundation
Coming up
Releases and meetings ahead
Dates from the official release calendars. Each release becomes a card the evening it comes out.
Tue 10 Nov
October CPIHeadline and core consumer prices
Due today, 8:30 am ET
Thu 12 Nov
Weekly jobless claimsLayoffs
8:30 am ET
Fri 13 Nov
October PPIProducer prices
8:30 am ET
Tue 17 Nov
October retail salesConsumer spending
8:30 am ET
Wed 25 Nov
GDP estimateGrowth
8:30 am ET
Wed 9 Dec
FOMC rate decisionWith new projections and the dot plot
2:00 pm ET
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Important Disclaimer
This tracker is for informational and educational purposes only. All market reaction data is sourced from public records and is presented as historical observation, not as financial advice. Past market reactions to policy events do not guarantee future outcomes. Titan Protect does not recommend any specific trade or investment strategy. All trading carries risk and you should consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Fed events are added by the desk. The data read and the data release cards are rebuilt each evening from official figures, read through FRED and ALFRED as they stood on release day. The lean on each data card comes from fixed rules: a hotter price figure above its usual range leans toward hiking; a weaker jobs or growth figure below its usual pace leans toward cutting; everything else leans toward holding. Last updated 10 Nov 2026, 01:17 UTC.