Earnings Preview · 04 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Debt ratio. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $4.34 a share on revenue near $2.1B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $20.53 of earnings per share against $13.01 over the last twelve, growth of about 58%. The median analyst target is $440 (range $325 to $625), 77% above the $249.25 share price, across 31 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 22 reports, the shares moved an average of +11.7% in the five sessions after the print and +18.4% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +16.8%; after a miss, +31.2%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
Levels that matter
At $249.25 the shares sit 66% below the 52-week high of $738.01 and -1% above the low of $252.01 (-1% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $299.95, above the price. The 200-day average is $447.24, above the price.
Valuation going in
Our fair-value work puts the shares about 46% below what the business is worth: value on offer. Our fair-value estimate is $457.70 against the current share price of $249.25. The shares trade at 19.6 times trailing earnings and 12.4 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 53% with net margins near 65%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.06, five-day price change -12.2%, as of 2026-11-02, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
