Earnings Preview · 04 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Screens compliant (both standards agree). A name values-conscious investors can weigh on the merits.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $2.16 a share on revenue near $10.1B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $10.19 of earnings per share against $8.64 over the last twelve, growth of about 18%. The median analyst target is $180 (range $100 to $400), 10% above the $164.25 share price, across 30 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.9% in the five sessions after the print and +3.4% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +3.1%; after a miss, +5.8%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 123% prices a one-week move of roughly ±17.0% (about $136.34 to $192.16). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $175 and the heaviest call open interest at $178; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $164.25 the shares sit 37% below the 52-week high of $259.92 and 35% above the low of $121.99 (31% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $176.11, above the price. The 200-day average is $169.17, above the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 24% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $133.04 against the current share price of $164.25. The shares trade at 21.5 times trailing earnings and 18.2 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about -4% with net margins near 21%.
Our stance
The name clears our screen; the print tells us whether the valuation is earning its keep.
What the flow says going in
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.08, five-day price change -10.7%, as of 2026-11-03, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
