Earnings Preview · 04 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Debt ratio. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $3.38 a share on revenue near $7.3B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $13.74 of earnings per share against $12.31 over the last twelve, growth of about 12%. The median analyst target is $293 (range $230 to $390), 10% above the $267.00 share price, across 29 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.2% in the five sessions after the print and +0.8% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -1.0%; after a miss, +3.0%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 51% prices a one-week move of roughly ±7.0% (about $248.22 to $285.78). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $230 and the heaviest call open interest at $260; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $267.00 the shares sit 22% below the 52-week high of $341.75 and 16% above the low of $229.20 (34% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $249.78, below the price. The 200-day average is $289.14, above the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (-4% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $257.38 against the current share price of $267.00. The shares trade at 20.9 times trailing earnings and 18.7 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 4% with net margins near 32%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as accumulation (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.23, five-day price change +5.9%, as of 2026-11-02, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
