Nikkei225: Daily Read | 2026-11-05

The Nikkei 225 is in a defensive phase, with the last price at 61,244 after finishing the last session 2.9 percent lower, because persistent pressure has pushed it down near the floor of its one-month range. The clear view is that downside control remains intact unless the index can rebuild above nearby resistance and ultimately reclaim the prior peak. That matters because the market is no longer correcting comfortably within a rising structure. It is testing the area where another failure could turn an orderly retreat into a deeper range unwind.

The macro backdrop matters chiefly through shifts in global risk appetite and currency sensitivity, which means those forces can amplify moves without changing the index-specific message. The more immediate catalyst is positioning against a weakening price structure: the one-month average stands at 65,248, price is below it, and the structure reads as a downtrend, price under both its one-month and longer averages. Momentum is roughly 4.4 percent down over the last two weeks, which means rebounds must prove they can hold rather than merely relieve stretched pressure. The month swing high at 70,799 sits about 15.6 percent above the current price, because the scale of that separation shows how much damage must be repaired before leadership returns decisively.

The first contest is around the round number handles at 62,000 and 61,000, because they concentrate attention and help define whether weakness is stabilising or accelerating. A shelf of support at 61,105, about 0.2 percent below, is especially important because it is close enough to be tested quickly and must absorb supply to prevent another leg lower. The broader three-month range runs from 60,449 to 70,799, which means the index is pressing toward the lower boundary of an established trading area. Holding 61,105 would defend the possibility of base-building around 61,000, while losing it would expose 60,449 and signal that the range floor is under direct pressure. On the upside, 62,000 is the first practical resistance checkpoint, but 65,248 carries greater structural meaning because a sustained recovery above it would begin repairing the prevailing downtrend.

The bull path is straightforward: if 61,105 holds, 61,000 attracts committed defence, and the index regains 62,000, then pressure can ease toward 65,248 because acceptance back above the one-month average would show that demand is absorbing weakness. If that repair extends and a decisive move above 70,799 follows, it opens the path toward 71,799, which means the three-month ceiling has been cleared rather than merely tested. The bear path is equally clear: if 61,105 fails, then 60,449 becomes exposed because the nearest shelf has given way. Failure at 60,449 would imply that the existing three-month range is breaking lower, with rebounds then more likely to meet resistance at 61,000 and 62,000.

The main risk to the bearish read is a rapid recovery through 65,248, because sustained trade above both the one-month and longer averages would contradict the current structure. Conversely, repeated failure below 62,000 followed by a loss of 61,105 would invalidate the stabilisation case, which means attention should remain on whether 60,449 can preserve the wider range. Net, the Nikkei 225 remains vulnerable below 65,248, with 61,105 defining the immediate test and 70,799 defining the point at which the broader bearish read is decisively overturned.

Key levels: support 61,105 (0.2% below), resistance 70,799 (15.6% above), one-month average 65,248, three-month range 60,449 to 70,799.