Nikkei225: Daily Read | 2026-11-01

The Nikkei 225 is attempting to stabilize at 64,659 after finishing the last session 1.1 percent higher, but the move is not yet a clean return to strength. It is trading in the lower half of its one-month range, which means the recovery has work to do before control shifts decisively back toward the bulls. The clear view is cautiously constructive: the longer trend remains upward, yet the present structure still looks like a pullback rather than a renewed advance because price has not reclaimed the area that previously anchored the market.

The one month average at 66,228 is the immediate reference point because price remains below it, leaving the structure as a pullback that has slipped under the one-month average while the longer trend still points up. Momentum is roughly 0.4 percent up over the last two weeks, which means downside pressure has eased without producing convincing acceleration. In the broader macro backdrop, shifts in global risk appetite and currency expectations matter especially for Japanese exporters, but the index itself must confirm improvement by recovering lost ground rather than relying on those external supports.

The nearer round number handles at 65,000 and 64,000 define the first contest. Holding 64,000 would show that participants are defending the latest rebound, while sustained trade above 65,000 would improve the odds of a challenge toward 66,228. That average matters because reclaiming it would begin to repair the pullback structure and place the month swing high at 70,799 back in view, about 9.5 percent above the current price. Below, a shelf of support at 61,463 sits about 4.9 percent below and carries greater structural weight because it stands just above the bottom of the three month range from 60,449 to 70,799. A failure there would indicate that the retreat is broadening beyond an orderly reset.

The bull path is straightforward: if 64,000 continues to hold, then acceptance above 65,000 can build a recovery toward 66,228; if price then reclaims that average and sustains the improvement, the market can retest 70,799. A decisive move above 70,799 opens the path toward 71,799 because that break would clear the established range ceiling and confirm renewed upward expansion. The bear path begins if rebounds repeatedly fail beneath 65,000 and 66,228; if that weakness pushes through 64,000, then pressure can extend toward 61,463. Losing 61,463 exposes 60,449, which means the full three-month floor would be under direct challenge.

The main risk to the constructive view is that the 1.1 percent higher session proves to be only a temporary bounce because price remains below 66,228. A decisive loss of 61,463 would invalidate the orderly-pullback reading, while recovery above 66,228 would weaken the bearish case and restore 70,799 as the central test. Net, the Nikkei 225 retains an upward longer-term bias, but conviction belongs above resistance, while defense of support remains essential.

Key levels: support 61,463 (4.9% below), resistance 70,799 (9.5% above), one-month average 66,228, three-month range 60,449 to 70,799.