Nikkei225: Daily Read | 2026-10-29

The Nikkei 225 is staging a forceful rebound, with the last price at 64,658 after finishing the last session 2.2 percent higher, but the move has not yet repaired the pullback. The index remains in the lower half of its one-month range and below the one month average at 66,368, which means the immediate balance is still corrective even though the longer trend points up. The clear view is cautiously constructive: the rebound matters because it shows demand returning, but conviction requires the index to reclaim the ground lost beneath that average.

The catalyst is the tension between a durable longer-term advance and recent position reduction across the index, because momentum is roughly 4.6 percent down over the last two weeks despite the latest recovery. That combination often creates sharp counter-moves as pressure eases, but it does not automatically mark the end of a pullback. For the broader index asset class, the important macro question is whether the prevailing risk backdrop can sustain participation beyond a single strong session, because the current structure still needs follow-through rather than another isolated bounce.

The nearer handles define the first contest. The 65,000 area is immediate resistance because it sits just above the last price and represents the first test of whether the rebound can attract continued demand. Holding above it would improve near-term control and bring the one month average at 66,368 into focus, while rejection would keep the index vulnerable to renewed pressure toward 64,000. That lower round number matters because defending it would preserve the rebound’s base, whereas sustained trade beneath it would indicate that the latest session changed the pace, not the underlying pullback. The wider three month range of 60,449 to 70,799 shows that price remains well inside established boundaries.

The main support shelf is 61,463, about 4.9 percent below, and it carries more weight than the round-number handles because it is the level separating an orderly retracement from a deeper structural test. Above, the month swing high at 70,799 sits about 9.5 percent above the current price and is decisive resistance because it marks the point where the entire recent decline would be absorbed. A decisive move above 70,799 opens the path toward 71,799, which means the longer uptrend would be reasserting itself through fresh range expansion rather than merely recovering lost ground.

The bull path is straightforward: if 64,000 holds, 65,000 is cleared, and price then regains 66,368, the pullback should lose authority because demand would have reclaimed both the nearest barrier and the recent mean. That would strengthen the case for a return toward 70,799, with 71,799 becoming relevant only after a decisive break. The bear path begins if 65,000 repeatedly rejects the rebound and 64,000 fails, because that would shift attention back to 61,463. Losing 61,463 exposes 60,449, which means the index would be testing the bottom of its three month range rather than consolidating comfortably within an upward trend.

The principal risk to the constructive view is a rebound that stalls below 66,368 and rolls through 64,000, because that sequence would confirm that the 2.2 percent rise lacked durable follow-through. A loss of 61,463 would invalidate the orderly-pullback thesis and place 60,449 at risk. Net, the Nikkei 225 retains an upward longer-term bias, but at 64,658 it must reclaim 65,000 and then 66,368 before the rebound deserves full confidence.

Key levels: support 61,463 (4.9% below), resistance 70,799 (9.5% above), one-month average 66,368, three-month range 60,449 to 70,799.