AUDUSD: Daily Read | 2026-10-31

AUD/USD is attempting to extend a recovery, with the last price at 0.7035 after finishing the last session 0.1 percent higher. The pair is holding in the upper half of its one-month range, which means the immediate pressure remains upward even though the broader advance is not yet confirmed. The clear view is constructive while price holds above 0.7000, because recent strength has restored a firmer structure, but the market still needs to clear nearby resistance before the recovery becomes a durable trend.

The macro influence is the balance between global risk appetite, China-sensitive growth expectations and the direction of the US dollar, because AUD/USD typically strengthens when that mix favors cyclical currencies. Instrument-specific evidence supports cautious optimism: momentum is roughly 1.3 percent up over the last two weeks, while the one month average stands at 0.6996. Price is above it, and the structure reads as a recovery attempt, back above the one-month average but still under the longer one, which means short-term control has improved without removing the broader overhead constraint.

The first important reference is 0.7000, because it is both a nearer round number handle and close enough to 0.6996 to form a practical support zone. Holding that area would show the recovery is being defended rather than merely extended by short covering. The month swing high at 0.7070 sits about 0.5 percent above the current price and is the immediate resistance test, because a decisive move above it would confirm that demand can absorb supply at the recent extreme. Beyond there, 0.7200 is the next nearer round number handle, while the top of the three month range at 0.7241 is the more consequential resistance. At the other end, a shelf of support at 0.6899 lies about 1.9 percent below, which means the full three month range remains 0.6899 to 0.7241 and the downside boundary carries greater structural weight than routine volatility around 0.7000.

The bull path is straightforward: if 0.7000 and 0.6996 continue to hold, then pressure can rebuild against 0.7070 because the market would retain its improving short-term structure. If a decisive move above 0.7070 follows, then the path opens toward 0.7241, with 0.7200 likely to act as an intermediate resistance test. The bear path begins if price slips back through 0.7000 and cannot recover 0.6996, because that would turn the recent advance into a failed recovery attempt. If weakness then reaches and loses 0.6899, it exposes 0.6800, which means the lower boundary of the three month range has failed and downside control has materially strengthened.

The principal risk to the constructive read is rejection at 0.7070 followed by sustained trade below 0.6996, because that sequence would show that nearby resistance remains dominant. A loss of 0.6899 would fully invalidate the recovery view and expose 0.6800. Net, AUD/USD retains a positive near-term bias above 0.7000, but conviction requires a decisive break of 0.7070 before the move can credibly extend toward 0.7241.

Key levels: support 0.6899 (1.9% below), resistance 0.7070 (0.5% above), one-month average 0.6996, three-month range 0.6899 to 0.7241.