Earnings Preview · 10 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Debt ratio. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $-1.21 a share on revenue near $3.5B. The median analyst target is $130 (range $39 to $278), 168% above the $48.59 share price, across 38 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 6 reports, the shares moved an average of -6.4% in the five sessions after the print and +5.8% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -4.5%; after a miss, +11.0%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
What options are pricing
Max pain for the nearest expiry is $48.
Levels that matter
At $48.59 the shares sit 65% below the 52-week high of $138.25 and -2% above the low of $49.46 (-1% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $75.56, above the price. The 200-day average is $88.14, above the price.
Valuation going in
Our fair-value work puts the shares about 48% below what the business is worth: value on offer. Our fair-value estimate is $92.80 against the current share price of $48.59. Revenue is growing about 112% with net margins near -25%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.03, five-day price change -15.4%, as of 2026-11-06, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
