Earnings Preview · 10 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Interest/revenue 6.0%. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $-0.66 a share on revenue near $905M. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $-3.60 of earnings per share against $1.28 over the last twelve, a decline of about 381%. The median analyst target is $302 (range $84 to $410), 116% above the $139.82 share price, across 20 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of -6.9% in the five sessions after the print and -1.0% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -5.5%; after a miss, +25.9%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
Levels that matter
At $139.82 the shares sit 53% below the 52-week high of $299.86 and 90% above the low of $73.52 (29% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $201.68, above the price. The 200-day average is $178.41, above the price.
Valuation going in
Our fair-value work puts the shares about 46% below what the business is worth: value on offer. Our fair-value estimate is $258.98 against the current share price of $139.82. The shares trade at 134.4 times trailing earnings. Revenue is growing about 454% with net margins near 3%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.07, five-day price change -16.0%, as of 2026-11-06, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
