Nikkei225: Daily Read | 2026-11-04

Nikkei 225 is under clear pressure at 61,260 after finishing the last session 2.9 percent lower, and the weakness matters because the index is now down near the floor of its one-month range rather than merely retreating from an extended advance. The structure reads as a downtrend, with price under both its one-month and longer averages, so the burden of proof sits with the bulls. Until the index can reclaim nearby resistance and hold it, rebounds should be treated as attempts to stabilize within a damaged structure, not evidence that the decline has run its course.

The macro backdrop matters through global risk appetite and the currency sensitivity of Japanese exporters, because both channels can amplify moves in this index when confidence deteriorates. The more immediate issue is internal price damage: the one month average stands at 65,249, with price below it, while the index is roughly 4.4 percent down over the last two weeks. That combination shows persistent pressure rather than a single-session shock. The month swing high at 70,799 is about 15.6 percent above the current price, which means substantial repair is required before the broader tone can credibly turn constructive.

The nearer round number handles at 62,000 and 61,000 define the immediate contest because they separate stabilization from another test of the range floor. Reclaiming 62,000 would show that demand can absorb pressure above the latest close, while holding 61,000 would preserve a modest buffer beneath the market. The more important shelf of support is 60,030, about 2.0 percent below, because it is also the lower boundary of the three month range from 60,030 to 70,799. That shelf is defended by its prior role as the range floor. A sustained break would signal that the established balance has failed, not simply that volatility has increased.

The bull path is straightforward: if 61,000 holds and the index regains 62,000, then stabilization can develop into a recovery toward the one month average at 65,249 because reclaiming that reference would begin repairing the prevailing downtrend. If strength then carries through the upper boundary, a decisive move above 70,799 opens the path toward 71,799, which means the prior range has resolved upward. The bear path is equally clear: if rebounds fail beneath 62,000 and pressure pushes through 61,000, then another challenge of 60,030 becomes likely. Losing 60,030 exposes 60,000 because the range floor would no longer be containing the decline.

The main risk to the bearish view is a rapid recovery that holds above 65,249 and continues through 70,799, because that sequence would invalidate the downtrend and show that the latest break was temporary. The main risk to the bullish path is failure at 62,000 followed by a loss of 60,030, which means support has given way while recent downside force remains intact. Net, the Nikkei 225 remains defensively positioned at 61,260, with stabilization possible near support but a durable bullish turn still requiring meaningful structural repair.

Key levels: support 60,030 (2.0% below), resistance 70,799 (15.6% above), one-month average 65,249, three-month range 60,030 to 70,799.