Earnings Preview · 03 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Screens compliant (both standards agree). A name values-conscious investors can weigh on the merits.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $1.94 a share on revenue near $13.1B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $15.91 of earnings per share against $3.92 over the last twelve, growth of about 306%. The median analyst target is $640 (range $365 to $1250), 34% above the $477.39 share price, across 50 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +2.4% in the five sessions after the print and +6.0% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +5.6%; after a miss, +8.6%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 8% prices a one-week move of roughly ±1.2% (about $471.83 to $482.94). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $430 and the heaviest call open interest at $550; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after. Max pain for the nearest expiry is $350.
Levels that matter
At $477.39 the shares sit 28% below the 52-week high of $658.52 and 154% above the low of $188.22 (61% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $542.28, above the price. The 200-day average is $402.06, below the price. Max pain at $507.50. Max pain at $520.00. Max pain at $500.00.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 23% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $387.45 against the current share price of $477.39. The shares trade at 144.5 times trailing earnings and 35.6 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 50% with net margins near 16%.
Our stance
The name clears our screen; the print tells us whether the valuation is earning its keep.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.01, five-day price change -12.1%, as of 2026-11-02, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
