Earnings Preview · 03 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $5.78 a share on revenue near $10.1B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $24.49 of earnings per share against $16.10 over the last twelve, growth of about 52%. The median analyst target is $405 (range $225 to $500), 13% below the $464.69 share price, across 29 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +1.9% in the five sessions after the print and +5.5% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +6.0%; after a miss, +1.2%. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 51% prices a one-week move of roughly ±7.1% (about $431.81 to $497.57). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $440 and the heaviest call open interest at $425; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $464.69 the shares sit 1% below the 52-week high of $468.27 and 61% above the low of $288.00 (98% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $417.26, below the price. The 200-day average is $365.98, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (+2% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $471.91 against the current share price of $464.69. The shares trade at 28.6 times trailing earnings and 18.8 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 10% with net margins near 23%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Price has run up but the money has been quietly leaving: distribution into strength. For a holder that is a trim-or-take-profit signal, not an add; the crowd sees the strength, the flow sees the exit. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.01, five-day price change +6.1%, as of 2026-10-30, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
