EURUSD: Daily Read | 2026-10-29

EUR/USD is leaning lower, with the last price at 1.1142 after finishing the last session 0.1 percent lower. The important point is not the modest daily move but its location: it is down near the floor of its one-month range because persistent pressure has pushed the pair into an area where support must now prove itself. The clear view is defensive while price remains pinned here. A bounce can develop from stretched positioning, but the burden is on the euro to recover lost ground before the prevailing direction changes.

The structure reads as a downtrend, with price under both its one-month and longer averages, and the one month average at 1.1203 now sits above the market. That matters because former balance has become overhead resistance rather than a platform for recovery. Momentum is roughly 0.7 percent down over the last two weeks, which means the weakness is persistent rather than the result of one abrupt session. In the macro backdrop, relative expectations for European and US growth and policy matter because they shape the currency differential, but the immediate driver is the euro’s failure to regain its recent average while the dollar retains the stronger side of the pair.

The first shelf of support is 1.1116, about 0.2 percent below, and it matters because it is both nearby and the lower boundary of the three month range at 1.1116 to 1.1715. Defenders need to hold that shelf to preserve the case for stabilization near the range floor. Losing it would show that demand at the established boundary has failed and would expose the nearer round number handle at 1.1000. Above the market, 1.1200 is the first round number handle to recover, with 1.1203 immediately beyond it. Clearing that cluster would matter because it would return price above recent balance and reduce the credibility of the current downtrend. The month swing high at 1.1382, about 2.2 percent above the current price, is the more consequential resistance because it marks the point where a recovery becomes a structural reversal.

The bull path is straightforward: if 1.1116 holds, then stabilization can force a move through 1.1200 and 1.1203, which means pressure is easing and the month swing high can come back into play. If a decisive move above 1.1382 follows, then the path opens toward 1.1715 because the key ceiling has given way and the full three month range becomes relevant. The bear path is equally clear: if repeated rebounds fail beneath 1.1200 and 1.1203, then pressure remains concentrated on 1.1116. If that shelf is lost decisively, then 1.1000 is exposed because the established range floor is no longer containing the decline.

The main risk to the bearish read is a fast recovery above 1.1203, followed by acceptance through 1.1382, because that sequence would invalidate the pattern of lower trade beneath recent balance. Conversely, holding 1.1116 alone would not confirm a durable turn, which means the euro still needs to reclaim resistance before confidence improves. Net, EUR/USD remains vulnerable at 1.1142, with 1.1116 defining immediate survival and 1.1382 defining genuine trend change.

Key levels: support 1.1116 (0.2% below), resistance 1.1382 (2.2% above), one-month average 1.1203, three-month range 1.1116 to 1.1715.