Nikkei225: Daily Read | 2026-10-24

The Nikkei 225 is in a sharp pullback, but the larger advance is not yet broken. At 62,908 after finishing 2.7 percent lower, the index sits near the floor of its one-month range, which means pressure is immediate and confidence is fragile. Price is below the one month average of 66,889, confirming that near-term control has shifted toward supply, yet the longer trend still points up. The clear view is cautious near term but not structurally bearish unless nearby support fails.

The immediate catalyst is the speed of the retreat itself. The index has fallen roughly 10.2 percent over the last two weeks, which means position reduction and weaker risk appetite can reinforce each other even without a fresh macro shock. For this asset class, a fast decline from elevated levels matters because index exposure tends to be reduced broadly rather than stock by stock, creating heavy pressure until valuations and positioning attract durable demand. That dynamic explains why the pullback can remain disorderly while the longer trend retains an upward bias.

The nearest pivot is 63,000 because reclaiming and holding that round number would show that demand is beginning to absorb the latest wave of pressure. The 62,000 handle is the next immediate defense, which means sustained trade beneath it would leave the market relying on the more important shelf of support at 61,463, about 2.3 percent below. That shelf matters because it separates a contained correction from a deeper challenge to the broader advance. Losing it decisively would expose 60,449, the bottom of the three month range.

On the upside, 66,889 is the first meaningful resistance because recovering the one month average would repair the damaged near-term structure and suggest that the retreat has run its course. Beyond there, the month swing high at 70,799 stands about 12.5 percent above the current price, which means any return to that area would require a substantial rebuilding of confidence. It is also the decisive breakout point: a firm move above 70,799 opens the path toward 71,399, the upper boundary of the three month range of 60,449 to 71,399.

The bull path is straightforward: if 62,000 and 61,463 remain defended, then a recovery through 63,000 can extend toward 66,889 because the market would be demonstrating that forced pressure has been absorbed. If 66,889 is then reclaimed and held, the structure can rotate back toward 70,799, with a decisive move above that resistance opening 71,399. The bear path begins if 62,000 cannot stabilize trade and 61,463 gives way, because that would confirm that the correction is broadening and expose 60,449.

The main risk to the bearish near-term view is a rapid recovery above 66,889, which means supply has lost control sooner than expected. The main invalidation of the constructive longer view is a decisive loss of 61,463 followed by failure at 60,449, because that sequence would replace a pullback with structural deterioration. Net, 62,908 leaves the Nikkei vulnerable, but support remains close enough for stabilization before the larger upward trend is abandoned.

Key levels: support 61,463 (2.3% below), resistance 70,799 (12.5% above), one-month average 66,889, three-month range 60,449 to 71,399.