NAS10028,437+0.91%S&P7,689+1.58%GOLD$4,070+3.28%BTC$80,381+3.93%VIX16.61−20.26%latest tape · as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
THGThe Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
THG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.5B · 4,900 employees
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
247.31 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price247.31 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.87, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price247.31 USD
Fair value228.10
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup247.31+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-21Read Accumulation230.75+7.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown217.96+13.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-14Read Accumulation224.01+10.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 11 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. holds its Markup at $247.31. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$247.31
Valuation
11.87 trailing · 12.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Hanover Insurance Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when THG's ethical verdict changes
Today THG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $228.10 fair value estimate, 4.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.4% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $228.10, with a range of $200.70 to $273.36, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance cover trips the ethical line here
Picture a broker in Boston settling a storm claim for a small business. The money moves, the policy renews, yet the whole sector sits on our prohibited list from the start. We pass without running the rest of the numbers.
The shares trade at 11.4 times forward earnings with 6 percent revenue growth, an 11 percent profit margin and 22 percent return on equity. Analyst targets sit near current levels and the margin of safety is thin. None of that matters once the ethical screen has already ruled the name out.
Cyclical insurance earnings can look steady until a bad weather year or reserve hit arrives, and the low multiple offers no protection against that swing. Currency and catastrophe exposure add further uncertainty on top of the ethical block.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
THG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$247.31+7.2%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206.
2026-10-28Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$230.75+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$226.17+3.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.