The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Old Republic International Corporation
ORI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $9.9B · 9,500 employees
Old Republic International Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides insurance underwriting and related services in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
40.84 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Old Republic International Corporation holds its Markdown at $40.84. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$40.84
Valuation
8.96 trailing · 12.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ethical screen rules out this insurer outright
Think of an adjuster driving out after a Midwest storm to settle claims on homes and businesses. That is the core work at Old Republic in its specialty and title books. Our screen still blocks the name because the entire insurance sector sits on the prohibited list.
Revenue is growing 14 percent and return on equity reaches 17 percent, yet the forward multiple sits at just 12.7 times with almost no margin of safety above the current price. Analyst targets cluster around the same level, so the numbers offer little extra pull once ethics close the door.
Property and casualty books swing with claim volumes and pricing cycles that can turn quickly. The screen keeps us out of the sector for that reason as well. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$41.97-3.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$43.45+12.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Markdown$38.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Markdown$38.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$38.57Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
