Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.17, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price155.17 USD
Fair value149.01
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 2 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation138.46+12.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-21Read Markdown141.65+9.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-20Read Markup146.73+5.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown134.10+15.7% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AFG's ethical verdict changes
Today AFG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 2 Nov 2026: it trades above our $149.01 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 5.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.1% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $149.01, with a range of $122.40 to $183.16, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer trips ethical screen before numbers count
Picture a US property insurer collecting premiums on homes and fleets that face storms or accidents every year. American Financial Group clears none of our screens because the entire sector sits on the excluded list, full stop.
The figures look tidy on paper with an 11.8 times forward earnings multiple, 19 percent return on equity and an 11 percent profit margin. Yet revenue sits flat, the moat stays narrow and analyst targets hover only a couple of dollars above the current share price, so nothing here changes the decision.
Insurance books carry real catastrophe and reserving risks that can erase years of steady results in a single bad season. The ethical block simply removes the name from consideration regardless.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AFG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$153.87+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$153.87+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$153.87+1.7%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$151.36+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$151.36+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$151.36+1.5%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$149.13+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$149.13+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$149.13+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$149.13+7.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
