Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price297.23 USD
Fair value339.39
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 2 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup292.80+1.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-26Read Accumulation283.31+4.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-19Read Distribution283.31+4.9% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown263.65+12.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 11 days
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Assurant holds its Markup at $297.23. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$297.23
Valuation
14.02 trailing · 12.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Assurant does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today AIZ does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 2 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 14% discount to our $339.39 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 9.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $339.39, with a range of $270.00 to $439.73, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every device fix or home claim routes through Assurant
Every cracked phone or storm damaged roof pulls Assurant into the picture. The firm runs protection plans for mobiles, homes and cars across four continents through its lifestyle and housing units. Revenue is growing 11 percent, margins sit at 8 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent, yet the market still prices it below our own fair value.
We pass for one clear reason. The business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds and that single breach overrides any surface appeal from the 12.3 times forward multiple or the narrow moat. Analyst targets sit near 295 dollars while our own number is 310, but none of those figures move the ethical verdict.
Risk remains the usual insurance traps of claims inflation and regulatory shifts, now joined by whatever activity triggered the screen failure. The combination keeps the opportunity rating at avoid.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AIZ trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$292.80+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$292.80+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup · changed$292.80+0.0%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$292.80+2.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$287.15+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$287.15+1.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$283.31+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$283.31+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $327. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $327.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $327.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
