Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.57, read 2026-10-30
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1,869.82 USD
Fair value1,519.31
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-17Read Accumulation1,850.13+1.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-09-05Read Markdown1,795.62+4.1% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 12% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-05Read Markup2,039.35-8.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation1,846.00+1.3% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Markel does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $1,519.31, with a range of $1,378.80 to $1,747.21, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why this insurer fails at the first gate
Picture a policyholder filing a claim after a storm and the payout moving through layers of capital that insurers gather from premiums. Markel sits squarely in that chain yet we pass without hesitation because the business lands in an excluded industry. The ethical screen exists for this reason and leaves no room for debate.
Numbers reinforce the decision. Revenue fell 17 percent, the forward multiple sits at 16.9 times while shares trade 23 percent above our fair value, and return on equity is just 10 percent with only a narrow moat. Analyst targets cluster near the current price but offer no margin of safety.
Cyclical insurance results can swing sharply with claims and investment returns, so the modest profitability shown here may not hold when losses rise. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MKL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$1,850.13+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005.
2026-10-02Markdown$1,740.40-3.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $2005.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
