NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Cincinnati Financial
CINF · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $26.0B · 5,705 employees
Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
169.21 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Cincinnati Financial holds its Markdown at $169.21. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$169.21
Valuation
7.99 trailing · 18.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $163.98 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 31.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday Insurer Trips Our Ethical Line
Picture a Midwest family renewing their home policy after a storm. Cincinnati Financial sits behind many of those steady renewals across commercial and personal lines. The business posts 12% revenue growth and a 21% profit margin, yet we are staying away.
The price sits at 180.79 against our fair value of 165.88, an 8% premium, and the forward multiple of 19.6x leaves little room. More importantly the ethical screen flags the firm on business activity, which overrides the moderate moat and 19% ROE. Analyst targets at 194 do not change that verdict.
Risks centre on the ethical fail and the fact that property casualty results can swing with weather and investment markets. The combination makes this one to skip. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CINF trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$168.29-6.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $192.
2026-07-24Accumulation$180.79+9.4%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $179.
2026-07-18Accumulation$165.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $179.
2026-07-03Accumulation$165.29+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$165.29Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
