An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $261.27
Allstate holds its Markup at $261.27.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 285 days
Price
$261.27
Valuation
5.78 trailing · 9.86 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.17
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $260.11 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 3.00% revenue growth.
Read at
$261.27
5.78 P/E · 9.86 fwd
Our fair value
$260.11
0% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$252.50
-3% to current
Target low $176.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $319.00
▲ current $261.27 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$261.27
you are here
Conservative
$212.06
-19%
Analyst avg
$252.50
-3%
Our fair value
$260.11
-0%
Analyst high
$319.00
+22%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price — fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Revenue growth
3.00%
Profit margin
17.81%
Debt to equity
23.72
Analyst consensus
Buy · 22 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityBusiness activity: Financials sectorFail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Insurance payouts meet an ethical wall
Every time a driver files a claim after a crash or a homeowner calls about storm damage, Allstate steps in to settle the bill. Yet we pass on the name. The business clears the numbers test with an 18 percent profit margin and 45 percent ROE, yet it fails the ethical screen on business activity grounds, and that single fact ends the case.
Revenue edges forward at just 3 percent, the forward multiple sits at 9.4 times, and the shares trade only 4 percent below our fair value. Analyst targets cluster around 252 dollars while the current price is 249.90, leaving little margin once the ethical filter is applied.
Insurance cycles can turn quickly when catastrophes cluster or reserves prove thin, and a low multiple on peak earnings often signals a value trap rather than a bargain. The ethical screen exists precisely for moments like this. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ALL trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241. Entered 2026-07-21 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Accumulation$249.90+13.1%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-18Accumulation$221.01+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-17Accumulation$221.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $241.
2026-07-03Accumulation$221.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$221.01Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
