NAS10028,436+0.18%S&P7,613+0.44%GOLD$3,975+1.95%BTC$77,056−1.52%VIX19.75+1.70%latest tape · as of 18:19 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Allstate
ALL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $64.7B · 53,000 employees
The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
259.87 USD
Price as of 30 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-30 · the tape above runs as of 18:19 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 2.03, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price259.87 USD
Fair value338.12
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup239.60+8.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-26Read Accumulation239.60+8.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution227.60+14.2% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 11 days
2026-09-21Read Markdown253.46+2.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Allstate holds its Markup at $259.87. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$259.87
Valuation
5.12 trailing · 9.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Allstate does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ALL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 30% discount to our $338.12 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 11.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $338.12, with a range of $316.28 to $519.74, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance payouts meet an ethical wall
Every time a driver files a claim after a crash or a homeowner calls about storm damage, Allstate steps in to settle the bill. Yet we pass on the name. The business clears the numbers test with an 18 percent profit margin and 45 percent ROE, yet it fails the ethical screen on business activity grounds, and that single fact ends the case.
Revenue edges forward at just 3 percent, the forward multiple sits at 9.4 times, and the shares trade only 4 percent below our fair value. Analyst targets cluster around 252 dollars while the current price is 249.90, leaving little margin once the ethical filter is applied.
Insurance cycles can turn quickly when catastrophes cluster or reserves prove thin, and a low multiple on peak earnings often signals a value trap rather than a bargain. The ethical screen exists precisely for moments like this. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup$259.87+1.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$255.92+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$255.92+1.7%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$251.71+5.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$239.60+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269.
2026-10-19Distribution$239.60+4.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $269.
2026-10-12Distribution$229.43+0.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $271.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$253.46-0.4%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
