NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Progressive Corporation
PGR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $124.9B · 70,053 employees
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
214.90 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Progressive Corporation holds its Markup at $214.90. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$214.90
Valuation
10.79 trailing · 13.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $223.31 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Progressive Corporation - Missed Mark on Ethics
Imagine buying insurance from a company that could be construed as aiding and abetting unethical activities. That's the bind when it comes to Progressive Corporation. The company underwrites insurance for personal vehicles and properties, but it fails our ethical screen, due to specific business activities that don't align with our values. Why it stands out. Despite solid financials – a forward P/E of 13.5x, 7% revenue growth, and a healthy 13% profit margin – the ethical failure means we must give this a wide berth.
The market, however, has a different opinion, with analysts giving a consensus hold rating and a median target price of $228. Yet, when a company's business practices contradict our ethical standards, the numbers, no matter how appealing, cannot justify an investment. Risk sits in the company's moderate moat and the fact that it operates in a competitive insurance market, where reputation is paramount.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PGR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markup$214.90+1.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$212.76+4.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $230. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markdown$204.02+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $230. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-15Markdown$204.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$204.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$204.02Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
