An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $213.83
Progressive Corporation holds its Markup at $213.83.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price
$213.83
Valuation
10.73 trailing · 13.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.25
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $220.56 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.30% revenue growth.
Read at
$213.83
10.73 P/E · 13.15 fwd
Our fair value
$220.56
3% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$228.00
+7% to current
Target low $198.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $308.00
▲ current $213.83 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$213.83
you are here
Conservative
$178.20
-17%
Analyst avg
$228.00
+7%
Our fair value
$220.56
+3%
Analyst high
$308.00
+44%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
7.30%
Profit margin
12.85%
Debt to equity
24.43
Analyst consensus
Hold · 21 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityBusiness activity: Financials sectorFail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Car insurance leader fails its ethics test
Picture every driver renewing a policy and the premiums flowing straight into a claims machine that has run smoothly for decades. Progressive sits at the centre of that flow, posting 7% revenue growth, a 13% profit margin and 35% ROE while trading at 12.8 times forward earnings. The numbers look steady, yet the opportunity rating is AVOID.
We pass because the stock fails the business activity screen outright. That single ethical breach overrides the moderate moat and the thin 6% gap between the current price and our fair value. Twenty-one analysts see a hold with a 230 target, but none of that matters once the screen is triggered.
Cyclical insurance can look cheap on low multiples right before claims spike or rates soften. Add the ethical failure and the modest margin of safety disappears. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
PGR trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $230. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$204.02+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $230. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-15Markdown$204.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$204.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$204.02Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
