Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.63, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price364.49 USD
Fair value337.76
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation364.49+0.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-22Read Markup365.59-0.3% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown323.25+12.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 18% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-03Read Accumulation395.51-7.8% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 11% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $364.49. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 43 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 43 days
Price at the screen
$364.49
Valuation
14.83 trailing · 16.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Kinsale Capital Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when KNSL's ethical verdict changes
Today KNSL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance Numbers Look Fine But Ethics Say No
Picture a builder in Texas or a clinic in Ohio paying premiums each month to cover the unexpected. Kinsale collects those premiums and aims to price the risk just right, delivering 10% revenue growth, 27% profit margins and 30% returns on equity. The business itself shows disciplined underwriting in a crowded field, yet none of that matters once the ethical screen is applied.
We pass without hesitation. The sector itself carries a prohibited keyword that triggers an automatic fail, regardless of valuation or growth. At a forward multiple of 15.9 times and a share price sitting just above our fair value, the numbers are neither compelling nor cheap enough to override that hard rule.
The real constraint is therefore non-negotiable. Any exposure here would breach the screen we apply to every name, and that boundary exists to keep the list clean. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KNSL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355.
2026-10-22Markup · changed$365.59+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$365.59+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$365.59+7.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$339.97+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$339.97+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$339.97+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$339.97+0.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$336.98+4.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$323.25-18.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 18.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $355.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
