Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.21, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price102.71 USD
Fair value120.00Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-17Read Accumulation102.88-0.2% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-05Read Markdown106.28-3.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 5% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup100.93+1.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mercury General Corporation holds its Accumulation at $102.71. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$102.71
Valuation
6.07 trailing · 8.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mercury General does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 14% discount to our $120.00 fair value, 13.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.4% discount to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $120.00, with a range of $120.00 to $205.42, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto cover looks cheap until ethics step in
Picture a driver in California filing a claim after a fender bender. The payout still has to come from an insurer that collects premiums, manages risk and hopes weather or lawsuits do not wipe out the year. Mercury General does exactly that, posting 10% revenue growth, a 14% profit margin and 38% ROE while trading at 8.9 times forward earnings with a modest 13% gap to our assessed value.
We pass outright. The ethical screen flags the entire insurance sector on prohibited keywords, and that single rule overrides every other number on the page. One analyst target sits at the same $120 level we use, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because the screen is non-negotiable.
P&C underwriting remains hostage to catastrophe losses, inflation in repair costs and state regulators who can cap rates overnight. A low multiple on peak earnings has trapped value investors before. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MCY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$102.42+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$102.42+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$102.42-0.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$102.85+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$102.85+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$102.85+0.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$102.79+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$102.79+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$102.79-0.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
