NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
RLI Corp.
RLI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.5B · 1,193 employees
RLI Corp., an insurance holding company, provides property, casualty, and surety insurance products.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
60.44 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
RLI Corp. holds its Distribution at $60.44. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$60.44
Valuation
12.70 trailing · 22.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance cover that trips an ethical alarm
Picture the steady drip of premiums that arrive regardless of storms or lawsuits. RLI collects them efficiently, yet the sector itself sits on our prohibited list, so the whole idea stops here before any spreadsheet opens. The ethical screen is clear and non negotiable.
Numbers show a business earning a 21 percent profit margin and 23 percent ROE on just 4 percent revenue growth, priced at 22.2 times forward earnings against our $45 fair value while shares sit at $61.57. Analysts see little upside and call it a hold near $60. None of that matters once the sector rule bites.
High returns can mask thin growth and cyclical insurance swings, yet the ethical block stands first. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RLI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-08-11Markup$64.38+18.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markup$54.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markup$54.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$54.35Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
