Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-02
Options put/call open interest 0.49, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price555.80 USD
Fair value607.97
Ethical score89.7/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markdown520.99+6.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-10-11Read Accumulation516.17+7.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-29Read Markup481.15+15.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 15% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution416.67+33.4% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Every chart read we post on this name lands here. Each one says which way we lean, how firmly, and the line that would prove us wrong. When price settles a read, we add a new entry and say plainly how it went.
Entries are point-in-time and never edited. Times in UTC. Not advice.
25 Oct02:48 UTC
ReadDaily chartOpen
↑
Up · strong
Wrong if a daily close lands below 506.46.
Dip zone506.46 to 508.43
Out below497.15
First target520.30
Then526.70
Microsoft is the strongest of the big names on the daily: price holds the 518 area and the weekly and monthly are rising. Buyers and sellers are evenly matched right now, so I'm not chasing. My plan: a long on a dip into 506.46 to 508.43, out below 497.15, first target 520.30, then 526.70. Not advice.
Chart as posted, 25 Oct 02:48 UTC. Daily candles to the 23 Oct close.
A read stays open until price settles it. Held and Hit mean the line we named did its job. Wrong means it did not. Grey means nothing triggered.
Also posted on our social channels.
The full research record, in depth, below
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Microsoft holds its Markdown at $555.80. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$555.80
Valuation
29.53 trailing · 22.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.7
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.40%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.18%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.94%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Microsoft clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MSFT's ethical verdict changes
Today MSFT passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 9% discount to our $607.97 fair value, strong competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $607.97, with a range of $461.95 to $769.92, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business: a strong moat and 40% profit margins. It trades close to our $607.97 fair value, so the easy discount is gone; you would be paying up for the quality.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MSFT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown · changed$520.99-3.4%Entry 23
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-28Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$539.44+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$539.44+4.5%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (54 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $561. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
