Screened 2026-08-20 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Palo Alto Networks holds its Distribution at $349.56. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-20
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$349.56
Valuation
303.97 trailing · 84.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
23.56%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 23.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.94%
Below 5%
Only 3.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $230.27 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 31.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-20 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 34.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 50 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-20 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Imagine a world where every online transaction, every data transfer, every byte of information is under threat - that's the reality Palo Alto Networks combats. As a global leader in cybersecurity, their solutions, such as Prisma Access and Strata Cloud Manager, are critical in today's digital age. The numbers are impressive - revenue growth of 31% and a moderate competitive moat, yet the stock trades at a hefty 84.9x forward P/E, significantly above its fair value of $230.27, which is 34% below its current price. Why it stands out. The market is valuing Palo Alto Networks like a tech start-up, despite its maturity and established position in cybersecurity. This overvaluation doesn't align with the company's more measured growth prospects.
The risk is also clear - at a P/E of 84.9x, investors are paying a high premium for growth that may not materialize at the expected pace. With a profit margin of 8% and ROE of just 5%, the returns on investment are modest, especially when considering the stock's lofty valuation. The bullish consensus from 50 analysts, with a median target of $354, might be swayed by the company's reputation rather than its current valuation metrics.
This is a company that passes our ethical screen and contributes positively to society with its essential cybersecurity services. However, given the current overvaluation, we believe caution is warranted. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PANW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 17
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 16
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 15
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 14
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$349.56+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$349.56-3.6%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup$362.66+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Markup$362.66+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (49 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
