An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Palantir Technologies Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $132.38
Palantir Technologies holds its Markdown at $132.38.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 8 days
Price
$132.38
Valuation
148.74 trailing · 63.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.56
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 2.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 64.6% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 27.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purity5.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $127.23 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 84.70% revenue growth.
Read at
$132.38
148.74 P/E · 63.20 fwd
Our fair value
$127.23
4% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$200.00
+51% to current
Target low $70.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $255.00
▲ current $132.38 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$132.38
you are here
Conservative
$66.19
-50%
Analyst avg
$200.00
+51%
Our fair value
$127.23
-4%
Analyst high
$255.00
+93%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
84.70%
Profit margin
43.67%
Debt to equity
2.48
Analyst consensus
Buy · 27 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
The crowd's favourite our screen won't touch
Palantir is the most-loved name on the list — a genuine data-and-AI franchise with the government and enterprise contracts to back it up. And we are staying away, for two reasons that have nothing to do with whether the business is good.
First, the price. At more than 60 times next year's earnings, Palantir is priced for near-perfection; even growing 85% a year, that valuation leaves no room for a stumble, and our fair value sits roughly where the stock already trades — no discount, no cushion. Second, and this one is ours alone: it fails our ethical screen. A meaningful slice of its earnings comes from interest on its securities holdings, and interest income does not clear the standard we hold every name to. So regardless of the hype, it is an automatic pass for us.
This is exactly what the screen is for. Not to tell you Palantir is a bad company — it plainly is not — but to flag, clearly, when the crowd's conviction and our standards point in opposite directions. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
PLTR trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 49%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $184. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$132.38-2.3%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 49%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $184.
2026-07-03Markdown$135.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$135.53Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
