An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Fortinet, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $161.61
Fortinet holds its Markup at $161.61.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price
$161.61
Valuation
62.40 trailing · 47.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.1
Beta
1.09
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 9.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 40.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $102.04 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 20.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$161.61
62.40 P/E · 47.17 fwd
Our fair value
$102.04
37% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$115.00
-29% to current
Target low $70.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $215.00
▲ current $161.61 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$161.61
you are here
Conservative
$80.81
-50%
Analyst avg
$115.00
-29%
Our fair value
$102.04
-37%
Analyst high
$215.00
+33%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
20.10%
Profit margin
27.49%
Debt to equity
57.31
Analyst consensus
Hold · 37 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Fortinet Secures Networks at a Premium Price
Picture Fortinet as the always-on security guard that checks every packet at the door while also wiring the building. It blends networking and cybersecurity through its FortiOS platform, delivering 20% revenue growth, 27% profit margins and a striking 132% ROE behind a strong moat.
We pass because the shares sit at 47 times forward earnings, well above our fair value that implies a 37% downside from the current 161 price. Even 37 analysts see a median target of 115, leaving little margin once growth normalises.
The ethical screen is cleared and the business quality is real, yet that valuation leaves scant room if competition intensifies or spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
FTNT trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (36 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $107. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$144.68+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (36 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-07-03Markup$144.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$144.68Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.