Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-18
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price306.53 USD
Fair value199.29
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-03Read Markup250.11+22.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cloudflare Inc holds its Markup at $306.53. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$306.53
Valuation
N/A trailing · 182.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
52.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 52.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
21.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
6.05%
Below 5%
6.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 35.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 31 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fast web shield still priced for perfection
Picture every website loading in an instant while fending off attacks from every corner of the globe. Cloudflare sits in the middle of that flow, routing traffic and blocking threats for millions of sites. Revenue is still climbing at 34 percent, yet the business keeps posting losses and a negative return on equity.
The numbers do not justify the price. Shares trade at 175 times forward earnings, well above our fair value and even above most analyst targets. A narrow moat and consistent cash burn leave little room for error if growth slows or competition intensifies.
Risk sits in the valuation gap itself. Paying almost double our assessed worth for a company that has yet to turn a profit invites sharp drawdowns if sentiment shifts. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NET trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup$277.58+5.9%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-30Markup$262.15+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$262.15+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$262.15+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$262.15+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$262.15-5.6%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$277.66+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$277.66+11.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$250.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Markup$250.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.