Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.43, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price273.62 USD
Fair value207.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution325.73-16.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 9% rise in 5 days
2026-10-24Read Markdown297.58-8.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 7 days
2026-10-17Read Distribution324.33-15.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 30% rise in 15 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup250.11+9.4% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cloudflare Inc holds its Distribution at $273.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 96 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 96 days
Price at the screen
$273.62
Valuation
N/A trailing · 161.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
52.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 52.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
21.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
6.05%
Below 5%
6.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Cloudflare's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 58% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NET's ethical verdict changes
Today NET does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $207.00 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 35.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 31 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +35% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $207.00, with a range of $144.00 to $238.05, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fast web shield still priced for perfection
Picture every website loading in an instant while fending off attacks from every corner of the globe. Cloudflare sits in the middle of that flow, routing traffic and blocking threats for millions of sites. Revenue is still climbing at 34 percent, yet the business keeps posting losses and a negative return on equity.
The numbers do not justify the price. Shares trade at 175 times forward earnings, well above our fair value and even above most analyst targets. A narrow moat and consistent cash burn leave little room for error if growth slows or competition intensifies.
Risk sits in the valuation gap itself. Paying almost double our assessed worth for a company that has yet to turn a profit invites sharp drawdowns if sentiment shifts. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NET trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$273.62-2.5%Entry 21
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$280.70+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$280.70+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$280.70-13.8%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$325.73+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$325.73+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 36% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown · changed$297.58-8.2%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup$351.00+26.5%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 26.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $243. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.