Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.16, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price213.50 USD
Fair value210.07
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Distribution257.29-17.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 15% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markup301.27-29.1% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 33% rise in 2 weeks
2026-09-15Read Markdown227.35-6.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after an 11% rise in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup204.08+4.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Twilio Inc holds its Distribution at $213.50. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$213.50
Valuation
26.86 trailing · 31.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
18.30%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 18.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.39%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Twilio clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TWLO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $210.07 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 19.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $210.07, with a range of $148.50 to $241.58, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Twilio powers messages yet misses on value
Picture a small business sending a verification code or a delivery alert. That message often travels across Twilio's network of APIs. The setup looks useful on the surface yet the numbers tell a cooler story.
The shares sit ten percent above our fair value with a forward multiple of thirty one times. Revenue climbs twenty percent but profit margins sit at two percent and return on equity at one percent. A narrow moat and an opportunity rating of none leave little margin for error.
Growth may continue yet the current price already prices in strong execution. Low returns on capital and a stretched valuation create the real risk of disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TWLO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Distribution$253.77-1.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$257.29+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-14Markup$289.47-3.9%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
