Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.59, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price41.09 USD
Fair value38.57
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation40.51+1.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Distribution38.05+8.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-09-01Read Accumulation39.79+3.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 18% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup33.66+22.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Samsara Inc holds its Markdown at $41.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$41.09
Valuation
320.86 trailing · 47.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
15.87%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.30%
Below 5%
Only 3.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Samsara clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 3%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 3% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $38.57 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 29.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $38.57, with a range of $35.10 to $44.36, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Truck sensors priced like a software winner
Picture a fleet manager watching every truck and warehouse in real time. Samsara turns that data into a connected platform, yet the business still earns just a 3 percent profit margin and a 4 percent return on equity despite 30 percent revenue growth.
At 42.8 times forward earnings the shares sit well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety. Narrow moat, modest returns and stretched valuation leave no opportunity rating once the numbers are stacked against the price.
High growth can mask thin profitability for only so long, and any slowdown would expose the gap between what investors pay and what the company actually delivers. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IOT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$42.07-6.3%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Accumulation$44.92+5.5%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$42.59+5.1%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-09-03Accumulation$36.79-7.5%Entry 12
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Accumulation$39.79+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markup$39.79+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup$39.79+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $45. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
