2026-10-25
Kaspi.kz JSC clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 02:03 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Kaspi.kz JSC ADR
KSPI · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $17.4B · 14,008 employees
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine.
Not yet scored95.42 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 02:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price95.42 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 3.38)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (2 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $122.61 to $175.82, base estimate $122.61 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 3.38, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price95.42 USD
Fair value122.61
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation91.27+4.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown92.83+2.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution96.45-1.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 20% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation80.56+18.4% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Kaspi.kz JSC ADR holds its Markdown at $95.42. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days |
| Price at the screen | $95.42 |
| Valuation | 8.36 trailing · 0.01 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.18 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 4.25% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 4.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.33% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 8.39% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 8.4% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Kaspi.kz JSC clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Kaspi.kz JSC clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 4%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $122.61 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 13.60% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.2% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $122.61, with a range of $122.61 to $175.82, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsKazakhstan fintech thrives yet draws no bid
Every time a shopper in Almaty pays for groceries or a merchant settles a marketplace sale, Kaspi moves the money inside one integrated app. The business combines payments, e-commerce and lending in a market with few rivals, delivering 31 percent revenue growth, 25 percent profit margins and 47 percent return on equity.
Those figures explain the narrow moat and clean ethical screen. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none because the shares already trade close to analyst targets and the company remains tied to one region whose rules and currency can shift quickly.
High returns look attractive until earnings peak or local conditions tighten, at which point the multiple can compress without warning. Forward earnings visibility is thin and the stock offers little margin above current analyst medians. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 0.0xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 8.4xvery cheap relative to earnings |
| EPS, trailing | 10.98 |
| EPS, forward | 6,803.44 |
| Revenue growth | +13.6%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 24.2%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 44.8%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -3,512.99% |
| Dividend yield | 446.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.22minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 6.52comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.18barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.01% |
| 52-week range | 68.59 - 109.94 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $17.4B |
| Employees | 14,008 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Kazakhstan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeKSPI trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Kazakhstan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01
Accumulation · changed $91.27
-0.5% Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-10-25
Markdown $91.74
-3.3% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-10-18
Markdown $94.84
+2.2% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-10-11
Markdown · changed $92.83
-3.8% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-10-02
Distribution · changed $96.45
-9.7% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-03
Accumulation $106.81
+23.2% Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 23.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-08-04
Accumulation $86.68
+7.6% Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-18
Accumulation $80.56
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-03
Accumulation $80.56
+0.0% Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Accumulation $80.56
Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) Position Valued at 7x P/E Amid Financial Model and Country Risks Yahoo Finance · 22d ago
- Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI) Offers Exposure to Digital Finance and E-Commerce in Kazakhstan Yahoo Finance · 23d ago
- Kaspi.kz to Announce Third Quarter & 9-Month 2026 Financial Results on 9 November Yahoo Finance · 25d ago
- Chevron Stock And 2 Top Dividend Stocks Yahoo Finance · 26 Sep 2026
- Kaspi.kz JSC's Dividend Analysis GuruFocus.com · 10 Sep 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $85.84 | -8.5% | · | $915 | -8.5% |
| 2 months | $73.28 | +7.2% | $1.76 | $1,096 | +9.6% |
| 3 months | $69.60 | +12.9% | $1.76 | $1,154 | +15.4% |
| 6 months | $75.12 | +4.6% | $1.76 | $1,069 | +6.9% |
| 1 year | $85.39 | -8.0% | $1.76 | $941 | -5.9% |
| 2 years | $119.62 | -34.3% | $5.25 | $701 | -29.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever KSPI does next, these words stay.
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