An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $86.68
Kaspi.kz JSC ADR holds its Markdown at $86.68.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price
$86.68
Valuation
7.62 trailing · 0.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.09
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$86.68
7.62 P/E · 0.01 fwd
Our fair value
$122.61
40% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$92.28
+6% to current
Target low $85.48Analyst target rangeTarget high $121.04
▲ current $86.68 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$86.68
you are here
Conservative
$122.61
+41%
Analyst avg
$92.28
+6%
Our fair value
$122.61
+41%
Analyst high
$121.04
+40%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
31.30%
Profit margin
24.91%
Debt to equity
11.86
Analyst consensus
Buy · 7 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Kazakhstan fintech thrives yet draws no bid
Every time a shopper in Almaty pays for groceries or a merchant settles a marketplace sale, Kaspi moves the money inside one integrated app. The business combines payments, e-commerce and lending in a market with few rivals, delivering 31 percent revenue growth, 25 percent profit margins and 47 percent return on equity.
Those figures explain the narrow moat and clean ethical screen. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none because the shares already trade close to analyst targets and the company remains tied to one region whose rules and currency can shift quickly.
High returns look attractive until earnings peak or local conditions tighten, at which point the multiple can compress without warning. Forward earnings visibility is thin and the stock offers little margin above current analyst medians. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Accumulation$80.56+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-03Accumulation$80.56+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$80.56Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$85.84
-8.5%
·
$915
-8.5%
2 months
$73.28
+7.2%
$1.76
$1,096
+9.6%
3 months
$69.60
+12.9%
$1.76
$1,154
+15.4%
6 months
$75.12
+4.6%
$1.76
$1,069
+6.9%
1 year
$85.39
-8.0%
$1.76
$941
-5.9%
2 years
$119.62
-34.3%
$5.25
$701
-29.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever KSPI does next, these words stay.
Kaspi.kz JSC ADR · KSPI · Markdown · $86.68
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
