The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Oracle Corporation
ORCL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $409.2B · 162,000 employees
Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
142.07 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-20
Screened 2026-08-20 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Oracle Corporation holds its Markup at $142.07. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 30 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-20
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 30 days
Price at the screen
$142.07
Valuation
24.41 trailing · 13.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.01%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 84% discount to our $261.89 fair value, strong competitive moat, 20.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-20 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 84.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 41 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +69% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-20 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oracle's Ethical Lapse Shadows Its Strengths
Imagine a tech titan that powers the world's databases, yet its own financial health has a glaring red flag. That's Oracle Corporation, a household name in enterprise IT environments, with a robust product line that includes cloud services and enterprise resource planning ERP. Despite its strong moat, competitive advantage, and a forward P/E of 13.0x, which suggests it's a steal, Oracle's ethical screen shows it's failing on the debt ratio - a critical measure for financial stability.
Why it stands out, on the surface, is its remarkable revenue growth of 21%, complemented by a profit margin of 25% and an ROE of 53%, which are figures that would typically command attention from any investor. Oracle's cloud software as a service offering is a cornerstone of its business, and in a world increasingly reliant on cloud technology, its products are more relevant than ever.
However, the risk sits squarely on its debt ratio, which has caused it to fail our ethical screen. This is significant because high debt can be a precursor to financial instability, especially in uncertain economic times. While the market consensus is a 'buy' with a median target of $240, the ethical lapse is a red line that cannot be ignored.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORCL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markup · changed$142.07+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Accumulation$142.07+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 32.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-07-18Markup$213.68+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (39 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-07-05Markup$213.68Entry 3
5 July 2026 — $213.68 — MARKUP (state model: sideways, 30 days) — VALUES SCREEN: EXCLUDED (debt). Journal opened. The entry that shows the screen does not bend for famous names. Season bullish, state undecided, exclusion absolute until the debt ratio says otherwise. Tensions on file: political round trip in April; officer filings held pending clean characterisation.
2026-07-03Markup$213.68+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$213.68Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
