Max Pain Level and Price Location
SPY closed at 752.79 on the Nov 9 2026 weekly expiry which sits 11.79 points above the 741.00 max pain strike because the strike carrying the largest combined call and put open interest value sits at that lower level. The gap removes any mechanical downside pinning force at settlement because weekly expiry mechanics lose leverage once price clears the pain point by more than 1.5 percent. Near term max pain for the following session stands at 740.00 which means the immediate support zone remains anchored around the prior pain level.
Four Week Max Pain Shift
Near term max pain declined from 768.00 to 755.00 over the past four weeks because open interest migrated lower across the front month strikes. The drop places today’s 741.00 level at its lowest point in that window which means the centre of gravity for combined open interest value has shifted down 27 points. SPY finished 2.6 percent below the prior near term pain level on Nov 6 which illustrates how the pain point can move independently of spot price.
Options Data Constraints
Greeks and gamma fields remain empty in the available slice which means no direct inference on dealer delta or gamma exposure is possible from this data set. The absence leaves positioning pressure analysis reliant solely on the max pain figure and its distance from spot because no additional flow metrics are supplied.
Scenario Triggers and Odds
Three outcomes carry working odds that sum to 100. A close back through 741.00 carries 35 percent odds because that would restore the pinning effect at settlement. Extension above 755.00 carries 40 percent odds because continued separation from max pain reduces expiry influence further. A drift into the 746.00 to 750.00 band carries 25 percent odds because that zone aligns with the next listed max pain levels for Nov 11 and Nov 12.
Risk Assessment
Overall risk sits at 25 percent driven by the 11.79 point gap above max pain which removes the usual downside anchor and leaves settlement exposed to any late tape movement.
| Level | Distance from Close | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 741.00 | 11.79 points below | Max pain strike with largest combined open interest |
| 740.00 | 12.79 points below | Next session max pain |
| 752.00 | 0.79 points below | Immediate reference near spot |
Experience Level Watchpoints
| Level | Focus from Tape |
|---|---|
| Beginner | Track how far spot sits from the printed max pain strike on expiry day |
| Intermediate | Compare the four week max pain drift against the current price gap |
| Advanced | Monitor whether subsequent expiries at 740.00 and 746.00 begin to attract open interest |
SPY price above the 741.00 max pain for today’s expiry removes the usual downside pinning effect at settlement.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
