An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · C.H.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $153.60
C.H. Robinson holds its Distribution at $153.60.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · political buying, disclosed 31 Jul2026
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price
$153.60
Valuation
29.26 trailing · 20.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 77.1
Beta
0.95
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $179.92 fair value, weak competitive moat, 19.30% revenue growth.
Read at
$153.60
29.26 P/E · 20.50 fwd
Our fair value
$179.92
17% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$210.00
+37% to current
Target low $91.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $237.00
▲ current $153.60 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$153.60
you are here
Conservative
$112.37
-27%
Analyst avg
$210.00
+37%
Our fair value
$179.92
+17%
Analyst high
$237.00
+54%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
19.30%
Profit margin
3.73%
Debt to equity
121.19
Analyst consensus
Buy · 25 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 27.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 49.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Freight Broker Trades Above Fair Value
Picture a Midwest warehouse loading pallets onto a truck. C.H. Robinson sits in the middle arranging the move and the paperwork. The shares sit 14% above our fair value with revenue already falling 1%, so we pass.
Forward earnings sit at 28 times while the profit margin is just 4% and the moat is weak. Return on equity of 35% looks strong on paper yet offers little protection once freight volumes turn down in a cyclical industry.
Analysts still lean buy with a $210 median target but the numbers show an expensive business with little room for disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CHRW trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197. Entered 2026-07-24 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Distribution$208.50+13.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197.
2026-07-18Distribution$184.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197.
2026-07-03Distribution$184.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$184.09Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
