An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $23.93
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR holds its Markup at $23.93.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2025-12-31
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days
Price
$23.93
Valuation
14.16 trailing · 10.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
-0.22
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$23.93
14.16 P/E · 10.51 fwd
Our fair value
$32.58
36% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$30.16
+26% to current
Target low $23.14Analyst target rangeTarget high $32.58
▲ current $23.93 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$23.93
you are here
Conservative
$32.58
+36%
Analyst avg
$30.16
+26%
Our fair value
$32.58
+36%
Analyst high
$32.58
+36%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
22.00%
Profit margin
17.88%
Debt to equity
34.66
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 18 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 12.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Against market value it is 119.7%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 17.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 13.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Parcels cross China but the edge stays thin
Think of ZTO as the local courier that moves boxes between factories and doorsteps across China every day. Revenue is rising 22 percent, margins sit at 18 percent and the forward multiple is just 10.5 times, so the shares look cheap next to our fair value of 32.59 against the current 23.92 price. Yet the moat is only narrow and the opportunity rating stays at none.
That leaves us passing. The business clears our ethical screen and analysts see upside to 30, but narrow competitive defences in a crowded market mean any growth edge can disappear quickly.
Risk sits mainly around China exposure, from sudden regulatory shifts to currency moves and local rivals that keep chipping away at returns. ROE of 15 percent is respectable yet nothing that screams durable advantage. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$22.83+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.83+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$22.83Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$25.01
-10.3%
·
$897
-10.3%
2 months
$24.76
-9.4%
·
$906
-9.4%
3 months
$23.12
-2.9%
$0.39
$987
-1.3%
6 months
$20.70
+8.4%
$0.39
$1,103
+10.3%
1 year
$17.34
+29.4%
$0.39
$1,316
+31.6%
2 years
$22.57
-0.6%
$1.09
$1,042
+4.2%
3 years
$24.96
-10.1%
$1.71
$967
-3.3%
5 years
$28.45
-21.1%
$2.33
$871
-12.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ZTO does next, these words stay.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR · ZTO · Markup · $23.93
Recorded 2025-12-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
