Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price19.84 USD
Fair value34.64
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution19.84+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown22.83-13.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR holds its Markdown at $19.84. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$19.84
Valuation
10.39 trailing · 8.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
-0.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
17.16%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 17.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.52%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
ZTO Express (Cayman) clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 13%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 74.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +45% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Parcels cross China but the edge stays thin
Think of ZTO as the local courier that moves boxes between factories and doorsteps across China every day. Revenue is rising 22 percent, margins sit at 18 percent and the forward multiple is just 10.5 times, so the shares look cheap next to our fair value of 32.59 against the current 23.92 price. Yet the moat is only narrow and the opportunity rating stays at none.
That leaves us passing. The business clears our ethical screen and analysts see upside to 30, but narrow competitive defences in a crowded market mean any growth edge can disappear quickly.
Risk sits mainly around China exposure, from sudden regulatory shifts to currency moves and local rivals that keep chipping away at returns. ROE of 15 percent is respectable yet nothing that screams durable advantage. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ZTO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-09-19Markdown$20.91-8.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-08-19Markdown$22.91+0.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-18Markdown$22.83+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.83+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$22.83Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
