Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.75, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price48.43 USD
Fair value67.71
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation45.96+5.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown45.96+5.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with deal news in the headlines
2026-08-31Read Distribution47.42+2.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-31Read Markup54.05-10.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
GXO Logistics, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $48.43. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$48.43
Valuation
42.57 trailing · 13.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.57
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
GXO Logistics,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today GXO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Warehouses move the goods but slim margins leave little buffer
Every time an online order gets picked, packed and returned somewhere in the world, a company like GXO handles the physical side through its thousand-plus facilities. The business grows revenue at 11 percent, trades on a forward multiple of 15.3 times earnings and clears the ethical screen without issue. Analysts like the story and set targets near our own fair value of 70 dollars against the current 54 dollar price.
Yet the same numbers show profit margins stuck at 1 percent and return on equity at just 5 percent. That combination produces a 30 percent margin of safety on paper but our rating stays at none because the underlying returns do not justify deeper conviction. The moat remains unknown in a sector full of capable rivals.
Low profitability leaves scant protection if volumes slow or labour and fuel costs climb. Logistics work is inherently cyclical, so a cheap multiple can simply mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GXO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$48.43+0.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$48.10+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$48.10+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$48.10+3.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-10-18Accumulation$46.50+1.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$45.96-3.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$54.05+8.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Distribution$49.70+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.