An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $47.73
Hub Group, Inc. holds its Distribution at $47.73.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days
Price
$47.73
Valuation
27.43 trailing · 23.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.9
Beta
1.22
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $39.99 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Read at
$47.73
27.43 P/E · 23.62 fwd
Our fair value
$39.99
16% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$41.00
-14% to current
Target low $29.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $50.00
▲ current $47.73 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$47.73
you are here
Conservative
$29.23
-39%
Analyst avg
$41.00
-14%
Our fair value
$39.99
-16%
Analyst high
$50.00
+5%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-5.30%
Profit margin
2.82%
Debt to equity
28.41
Analyst consensus
Hold · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 21.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Logistics firm priced for a boom it lacks
Picture a North American freight network moving goods at full tilt, only to find volumes sliding. Hub Group sits right in that lane, running intermodal and dedicated trucking alongside broader logistics work. We pass because the shares trade at 51 dollars against a fair value near 40, with a forward multiple of 25 times earnings despite revenue already falling 5 percent.
The business earns just a 3 percent profit margin and delivers a 6 percent return on equity, numbers that look thin even before the weak competitive position is considered. Fourteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a 42 dollar median target, yet the market still prices the company for expansion it is not showing.
Cyclical exposure means any further slowdown in shipments could compress margins quickly, and the low return profile leaves little cushion if freight rates stay soft. Ethical checks clear, yet the valuation gap and thin returns outweigh that pass. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
HUBG trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42. Entered 2026-08-01 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-01Markup · changed$51.22+19.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Distribution$42.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Distribution$42.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$42.93Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
