Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price30.03 USD
Fair value41.84
Ethical score89.9/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-01Read Distribution40.00-24.9% to today ✓
2026-08-01Read Markup51.22-41.4% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution42.93-30.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hub Group, Inc. holds its Distribution at $30.03. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$30.03
Valuation
17.26 trailing · 13.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.9
Beta
1.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
5.16%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Hub Group, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 21%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $41.84 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +35% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Logistics firm priced for a boom it lacks
Picture a North American freight network moving goods at full tilt, only to find volumes sliding. Hub Group sits right in that lane, running intermodal and dedicated trucking alongside broader logistics work. We pass because the shares trade at 51 dollars against a fair value near 40, with a forward multiple of 25 times earnings despite revenue already falling 5 percent.
The business earns just a 3 percent profit margin and delivers a 6 percent return on equity, numbers that look thin even before the weak competitive position is considered. Fourteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a 42 dollar median target, yet the market still prices the company for expansion it is not showing.
Cyclical exposure means any further slowdown in shipments could compress margins quickly, and the low return profile leaves little cushion if freight rates stay soft. Ethical checks clear, yet the valuation gap and thin returns outweigh that pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HUBG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$30.03-24.9%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 24.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$51.22+19.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Distribution$42.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Distribution$42.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$42.93Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
