An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $181.41
Expeditors International holds its Markup at $181.41.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days
Price
$181.41
Valuation
26.37 trailing · 23.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
N/A
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $155.85 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 32.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$181.41
26.37 P/E · 23.38 fwd
Our fair value
$155.85
14% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$156.50
-14% to current
Target low $95.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $200.00
▲ current $181.41 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$181.41
you are here
Conservative
$116.40
-36%
Analyst avg
$156.50
-14%
Our fair value
$155.85
-14%
Analyst high
$200.00
+10%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
32.10%
Profit margin
7.63%
Debt to equity
26.75
Analyst consensus
Hold · 14 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its accounts receivable. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 11.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 68.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Logistics firm priced for flawless execution
Picture a freight forwarder threading containers through ports and customs in a dozen time zones. Expeditors built a solid niche doing exactly that, yet the shares sit 32 percent above our fair value with a forward multiple of 26 times on just 4 percent revenue growth. The narrow moat and 37 percent ROE look attractive on paper, but the market already pays up for both while the ethical screen flags serious issues in accounts receivable.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin for the modest growth on offer and because the ethical failure on receivables cannot be ignored. Consensus targets sit well below the current price, and the business sits in a cyclical sector where earnings peaks often coincide with peak multiples that later compress.
The combination of stretched pricing, limited top line momentum and the governance red flag makes this one to skip. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
EXPD trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146. Entered 2026-07-28 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28Markup$182.80+13.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-18Markup$160.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-03Markup$160.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$160.44Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
