Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.39, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price101.06 USD
Fair value135.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation97.83+3.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 10% slide in 16 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution108.54-6.9% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
United Parcel Service holds its Accumulation at $101.06. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$101.06
Valuation
17.98 trailing · 12.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
United Parcel Service's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 39% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when UPS's ethical verdict changes
Today UPS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 38% discount to our $135.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 7.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Parcels Move But Debt Weighs Heavy
Every day brown vans thread through city streets dropping boxes, yet the balance sheet tells a different story. UPS fails our ethical screen on its debt load, and we pass for that reason alone even though the shares trade below our fair value and the forward multiple sits at 14.7 times.
Revenue fell 2 percent last year while the profit margin held at 6 percent and return on equity reached 33 percent. The narrow moat and declining top line matter less than the debt ratio that trips the screen. Analyst targets cluster around the current price, offering little cushion once the ethical filter is applied.
High leverage leaves the business exposed if volumes soften further or interest costs rise, turning what looks like a modest valuation into a value trap for any portfolio that screens out heavy borrowers. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UPS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Accumulation$97.83+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$97.83+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$97.83+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$97.83+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$97.83+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$97.83+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$97.83+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$97.83+4.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114.
2026-10-02Distribution$93.96-8.4%Entry 13
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
