The Screen · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
United Parcel Service
UPS · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $97.6B · 460,000 employees
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
114.79 USD
At the last full screen 2026-07-24
Screened 2026-07-24 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
United Parcel Service holds its Distribution at $114.79. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$114.79
Valuation
18.57 trailing · 14.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $135.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Parcels Move But Debt Weighs Heavy
Every day brown vans thread through city streets dropping boxes, yet the balance sheet tells a different story. UPS fails our ethical screen on its debt load, and we pass for that reason alone even though the shares trade below our fair value and the forward multiple sits at 14.7 times.
Revenue fell 2 percent last year while the profit margin held at 6 percent and return on equity reached 33 percent. The narrow moat and declining top line matter less than the debt ratio that trips the screen. Analyst targets cluster around the current price, offering little cushion once the ethical filter is applied.
High leverage leaves the business exposed if volumes soften further or interest costs rise, turning what looks like a modest valuation into a value trap for any portfolio that screens out heavy borrowers. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UPS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-24Distribution$117.72+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$117.72+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$117.72+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$117.72+8.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$108.54+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-03Distribution$108.54+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$108.54Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
