UPS
United Parcel Service
Industrials · Air Freight & Logistics · US
$100.78
Close 2026-05-10
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

NARROW MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$85.7B
Trailing P/E
16.30
Forward P/E
12.70
Rev Growth
-1.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
ROE
33.4%
Analyst Target
$112.88
Recommendation
BUY
About United Parcel Service

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $101 against a fair value of $159, a 37% discount. Fails ethical screen (Debt ratio). Ranks better than 69% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.39%)FAIL
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.23%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 88.0
Score Quality: 52.0
Score Combined: 47.5
Fair Value Est: $159.00 · Margin of Safety: +57.8% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation100.0
Quality44.2
Cash Flow67.5
Moat70.0
Balance Sheet29.6
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance58.8
Tier: GOLD · Score: 75.8 · Rank: #150
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-281.65Pending--
2026-04-281.021.07+4.8%
2026-01-272.202.38+8.1%
2025-10-281.301.74+33.9%
2025-07-291.571.55-1.0%
2025-04-291.381.49+7.9%
2025-01-302.532.75+8.6%
2024-10-241.621.76+8.4%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$21.2B$864.0M$2.4B$3.4B$1.3B1.02
2025-12-31$24.5B$1.8B$3.6B$5.1B$2.6B2.11
2025-09-30$21.4B$1.3B$2.8B$3.5B$1.8B1.55
2025-06-30$21.2B$1.3B$2.8B$3.8B$1.8B1.51
2025-03-31$21.5B$1.2B$2.7B$3.7B$1.7B1.40
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-01-28BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.Officer25,014$2.7M
2025-08-22SHI CHRISTIANA SMITHDirector500$44.1K
2025-08-01TOME CAROL B.Chief Executive Officer11,682$1.0M
2025-07-31JOHNSON WILLIAM RDirector5,000$432.5K
2024-11-25BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.Officer7,325$1.0M
2024-07-25JOHNSON WILLIAM RDirector5,000$643.0K
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.51.1M$5.2B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC48.2M$4.9B0.1%
State Street Corporation32.6M$3.3B0.0%
FMR, LLC32.6M$3.3B0.0%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.22.1M$2.2B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC17.5M$1.8B0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC13.5M$1.4B0.0%
Victory Capital Management Inc.11.0M$1.1B0.0%
Morgan Stanley10.2M$1.0B0.0%
Bank of America Corporation9.7M$982.7M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
13
13
2
29 analysts
2 Months Ago
13
14
2
30 analysts
Last Month
13
14
2
30 analysts
Current
13
12
2
28 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Recent Price History
2026-05-10
$100.78
2026-05-09
$100.78
2026-05-08
$99.89
2026-05-08
$99.89
5D Range
May 8
May 8
May 9
May 10
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$108.8B
Price/Book
5.29
Beta
1.049
Analysts
26
Total Revenue (TTM)
$88.3B
Total Debt
$28.7B
Earnings Growth
-27.2%
Dividend Yield
651.0%
Rec. Mean
2.21
Short Ratio
3.52
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
460,000

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 47.5 (P68 — top 32.2% of scored tickers). Narrow Moat. Ethical FAIL. 26 analysts at Buy.
Price: $100.78 | Target: $112.88 (+12%) | Fair Value: $159.00 (+58%)
Score
48
Moat
NARROW
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+12%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth-1.6%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE33.4%
Forward P/E12.7
Market Cap$85.7B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-28$1.65Pending
2026-04-28$1.02$1.07+4.8%
2026-01-27$2.20$2.38+8.1%
2025-10-28$1.30$1.74+33.9%
2025-07-29$1.57$1.55-1.0%
2025-04-29$1.38$1.49+7.9%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $85.66 (-15%) | Entry: $100.78
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($112.88, 26 analysts)
10$1,007.80+$121.00 (12%)0.8R
50$5,039.00+$605.00 (12%)0.8R
100$10,078.00+$1,210.00 (12%)0.8R
To Fair Value ($159.00)
10$1,007.80+$582.20 (58%)3.9R
50$5,039.00+$2,911.00 (58%)3.9R
100$10,078.00+$5,822.00 (58%)3.9R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (3.52 days to cover)
The Verdict
United Parcel Service holds a narrow competitive moat and trades at a 57.8% discount to fair value.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
56.4
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.7%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-5.2%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
-0.31
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
95
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.4x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
LPTVQ-0.184
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Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Tuesday
Best Month
Feb
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
0.28792157437877247
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+2.1%
Beat Drift Positive %
60.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-3.1%
3M Return
-10.1%
6M Return
+15.7%
12M Return
+12.4%
Momentum Rank
#2694
Momentum Signal
FLAT

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