Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 1.48, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price231.95 USD
Fair value241.44
Ethical score89.2/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-02Read Distribution275.45-15.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup284.95-18.6% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
J.B. Hunt holds its Distribution at $231.95. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$231.95
Valuation
32.54 trailing · 23.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.2
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.04%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
J.B. Hunt clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $241.44 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 19.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Freight hauler priced as if roads stay golden
Every pallet that rolls from a Midwest warehouse to a coastal port still pays the same diesel and driver costs. J.B. Hunt moves those loads through its intermodal and dedicated fleets, yet the shares sit 11 percent above fair value at a 28.9 times forward earnings multiple.
We pass. Revenue is growing 19 percent, profit margins sit at 5 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent, but a narrow moat does not support paying that premium when the numbers already price in flawless execution.
The real risk is that any slowdown in volumes or rise in fuel costs would expose how little cushion exists at current levels. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JBHT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Distribution$228.78-0.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
2026-10-15Distribution$229.26+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$229.26+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Distribution$229.26+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Distribution$229.26+1.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Distribution$226.07+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Distribution$226.07+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Distribution$226.07-17.9%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
2026-08-03Markup$280.96-1.4%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 96%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.