Reading Microsoft’s Quarter Through Our Principled Screen.
Filed Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 22:19 UTC · Entry no. 132663 · scored against the close · never edited
Earnings Review · 28 October 2026
The print
Results are in but not yet verified against a primary source in our ledger; this review updates the moment the audited figures land. What does not change is our read below.
How the market took it
On 2026-10-28 the shares closed at $531.01, -0.1% against the prior close of $531.33 (opening +0.2% from the prior close). Option volatility implied a normal one-day swing of about ±3.8%, so a -0.1% close was smaller than the market implied. Across the last 25 reports the shares have moved an average of +0.7% over the five sessions after the print, so the -0.1% on the day sits behind that average.
Did the flow confirm the move?
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.10, five-day price change -0.1%, as of 2026-10-27, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
Give the business its due
The business itself is genuinely strong: revenue growing about 18%, net margins near 40%, a strong competitive moat, backed by a 34% return on equity.
Levels that matter
At $531.01 the shares sit 4% below the 52-week high of $553.72 and 52% above the low of $349.20 (89% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $508.42, below the price. The 200-day average is $435.99, below the price. Max pain at $522.50. Max pain at $525.00. Max pain at $420.00.
The valuation lens
The shares trade about 12% below our fair-value estimate: a modest cushion. Fair value lands near $605 against a $531.01 share price, a margin of safety of about 12%. The trailing multiple sits around 30 times earnings, which only makes sense if the growth holds.
Screens compliant (both standards agree). A name values-conscious investors can weigh on the merits.
The verdict for a values-conscious investor
It clears the screen; size it to your own risk and conviction. One quarter, strong or soft, does not decide whether a holding is suitable.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
How This Entry Scores
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