Earnings Preview · 30 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $4.13 a share on revenue near $13.7B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $18.62 of earnings per share against $16.39 over the last twelve, growth of about 14%. The median analyst target is $415 (range $309 to $465), 9% above the $381.14 share price, across 21 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.7% in the five sessions after the print and +0.1% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +0.8%; after a miss, -2.4%.
Levels that matter
At $381.14 the shares sit 5% below the 52-week high of $400.00 and 24% above the low of $306.77 (80% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $354.38, below the price. The 200-day average is $351.41, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (-3% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $370.77 against the current share price of $381.14. The shares trade at 22.6 times trailing earnings and 19.9 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 8% with net margins near 8%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as accumulation (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.10, five-day price change +1.5%, as of 2026-10-23, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
