Earnings Preview · 06 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Excluded industry: Asset Management. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $0.46 a share on revenue near $1.6B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $2.15 of earnings per share against $1.74 over the last twelve, growth of about 24%. The median analyst target is $54 (range $44 to $70), 2% above the $52.88 share price, across 19 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 16 reports, the shares moved an average of +3.5% in the five sessions after the print and -1.4% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -3.1%; after a miss, +2.0%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
Levels that matter
At $52.88 the shares sit 6% below the 52-week high of $55.98 and 25% above the low of $42.20 (78% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 23% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $43.13 against the current share price of $52.88. The shares trade at 27.9 times trailing earnings and 22.6 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 61% with net margins near 49%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as accumulation (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.09, five-day price change +14.2%, as of 2026-11-04, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
