Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand in United States, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, and The Netherlands.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
165.73 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 18:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price165.73 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price165.73 USD
Fair value143.43
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup104.36+58.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 36% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution162.29+2.1% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Wingstop Inc. holds its Markup at $165.73. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 147 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 147 days
Price at the screen
$165.73
Valuation
39.26 trailing · 33.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
183.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 183.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Wingstop's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 183% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today WING does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $143.43 fair value estimate, 5.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $143.43, with a range of $108.00 to $164.94, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Wingstop's Wings Draw Crowds but Valuation Does Not
Picture a busy Friday night with queues for sauced wings and the brand expanding across new cities. Wingstop shows steady 7% revenue growth and a 16% profit margin, with an ethical screen that clears cleanly. Yet the forward multiple sits at 25.6 times earnings for a consumer cyclical name, and our opportunity rating lands at none despite the gap to fair value.
The analyst crowd pushes a strong buy call and a much higher median target, yet we see no edge once the price already reflects the growth story. Unknown moat and exposure to dining cycles add further caution. A low multiple on peak earnings would be a trap, not a bargain, and this multiple is not low.
Risk sits in any slowdown in US consumer spending or shifts in casual dining habits that could compress those margins quickly. The ethical pass removes one hurdle but leaves the rest untouched. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WING trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$161.57+24.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-28Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$130.31+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup$130.31+6.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markup$122.26+17.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (29 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $237.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
