Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.66, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price110.71 USD
Fair value112.54
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Markup112.64-1.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-18Read Accumulation116.59-5.0% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markup109.65+1.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Distribution99.47+11.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 32% rise in 13 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated holds its Markup at $110.71. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$110.71
Valuation
27.34 trailing · 22.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
65.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 65.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Cheesecake Factory's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 65% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CAKE's ethical verdict changes
Today CAKE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $112.54 fair value estimate, 13.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $112.54, with a range of $86.31 to $143.85, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Families queue for cheesecake while the price tag stays rich
Picture a packed American mall where groups linger over slices after dinner. The Cheesecake Factory runs that familiar scene across the United States and Canada, baking its own desserts and licensing the brand abroad. Revenue edges up 6 percent, yet the shares trade above our fair value with no margin of safety and a forward multiple of 19.1 times.
The business earns a strong 41 percent return on equity and clears the ethical screen. Profit margins sit at just 4 percent though, and fifteen analysts rate the stock a hold with a median target of 68 dollars. At the current price the market already prices in more optimism than the numbers support.
Consumer spending on dining swings with the economy, so any slowdown would hit growth and margins quickly. The unknown competitive moat adds another layer of uncertainty when the valuation already looks stretched. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAKE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup · changed$112.64-1.5%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-10-27Accumulation$114.39+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$114.39+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 46% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$114.39+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$114.39+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$114.39+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$114.39-1.9%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$116.59+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$116.59+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.