The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
96.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated holds its Distribution at $96.73. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$96.73
Valuation
26.21 trailing · 19.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
65.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 65.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Families queue for cheesecake while the price tag stays rich
Picture a packed American mall where groups linger over slices after dinner. The Cheesecake Factory runs that familiar scene across the United States and Canada, baking its own desserts and licensing the brand abroad. Revenue edges up 6 percent, yet the shares trade above our fair value with no margin of safety and a forward multiple of 19.1 times.
The business earns a strong 41 percent return on equity and clears the ethical screen. Profit margins sit at just 4 percent though, and fifteen analysts rate the stock a hold with a median target of 68 dollars. At the current price the market already prices in more optimism than the numbers support.
Consumer spending on dining swings with the economy, so any slowdown would hit growth and margins quickly. The unknown competitive moat adds another layer of uncertainty when the valuation already looks stretched. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAKE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup$107.05+24.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-24Markup$85.77+13.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-18Markup$75.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-03Markup$75.28+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$75.28Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.